Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Archer Rebound from Lackluster Bucs Debut?
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Chris Archer
Betting odds: Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
- Over/Under: 9.5
- First Pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Chris Archer (3-5, 4.40 ERA) vs. German Marquez (9-8, 4.70 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 75-47-3, +22.9 units
Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Royals Under 8.5, Montgomery vs. Keller (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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The win streak is now at five after last night’s Cubs-Royals Under 8.5 bet emerged victorious with some room to spare. Hopefully I can keep it going this afternoon in a game at the always-intriguing Coors Field.
The attention will be a little heavier today in this particular affair, as Chris Archer gets set to make his second start with his new club. In his Pirates debut last Friday, the former AL All-Star did not fare so well, allowing five runs (three earned) and 11 baserunners while failing to escape the fifth inning against St. Louis.
But that’s what makes this spot so appealing if you’re looking to lean on Archer. Will he struggle in back-to-back assignments to begin his tenure with the Buccos?
See, I think he won’t. First off, Archer has a legitimate excuse as to why he got off to a slow start in his team debut, talking about how “hectic everything’s been” after being dealt from the only team he’s ever called home. That can easily have an impact on a player out of the gate in his new digs.
Archer also took note of the ovation he received despite the uneven performance, so that figures to help put his mind at ease for his second turn with the Pirates, especially since they did ultimately pull out the win. He discussed that he’ll “be able to slow the game down a lot better next outing,” which is something that can aid the 29-year-old in providing a positive showing.
Regardless, Archer is due to improve and I believe a change of scenery, landing in the National League, can spark that.
Archer will be going up against German Marquez, who may not be as well-known as his counterpart, but perhaps the 23-year-old right-hander is in the midst of garnering a lot more attention.
Marquez has registered quality starts in five of his last six outings. That’s significant because that’s as many quality starts as Marquez produced in all of his prior 16 trips to the hill. Thus, we can gather that Marquez is in a rhythm at the moment.
The biggest factor for Marquez during this six-start stretch is a spike in his strikeout totals. He’s fanned at least eight batters in four of those outings, and overall, he’s punching out 9.46 K/9 for the season. Notably, that’s higher than any such mark he amassed at every level of his minor-league journey.
Marquez is typically stronger on the road than at home, but he’s been better at Coors Field lately, with his last two starts there clocking in as quality ones, so we’ll hope he can avoid getting knocked around. With the line as high as it is, there will be some room for error for Marquez, although you should wait first to see if the over/under goes back to 10 before first pitch.
Play: UNDER 9.5/10