Wednesday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Brantley and Carrasco

Wednesday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Brantley and Carrasco article feature image
Credit:

Ron Jenkins / Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Brantley.

After taking a good, long look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s one strikeout total I’m targeting on the schedule.

Additionally, there’s a position player matchup that I believe provides value.

Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.

MLB Player Prop & Pick

Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Mets vs. Marlins Mets -150
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Carrasco is still working his way back from injury, and it’s tough to really trust him yet. But he’s got a great matchup today.

Historically, Carrasco has relied primarily on a fastball-slider combination. In his 2021 debut, he recorded four strikeouts in four innings against Cincinnati – two came on the four-seam, one on the slider and one on the sinker.

This is how Miami has fared against those pitches this season:

Pitch Weighted Runs Created MLB Rank
Fastball -38.7 29th
Slider -13 17th
Sinker -4.9 26th

Plus, while the Marlins put up a decent number yesterday, the lineup has had a rough month. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins have posted just a .691 OPS and a 92 wRC+ while striking out at the second highest clip in MLB (24.7%).

This could prove to be the “get right” spot for Carrasco, and hopefully he starts punching out more than 10 batters per nine again (Carrasco has averaged 10.67 K/9 over the past four seasons).

FanGraph’s SaberSim projections has Carrasco at 6.84 strikeouts today, and our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at a whopping seven. Meanwhile, DraftKings has set the line at just 4.5, and I’m willing to play the over up to -150.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Michael Brantley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Astros vs. Dodgers Dodgers +175
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

Max Scherzer is having another great season. In fact, maybe even the best of his career.

However, he hasn’t faced this version of the Astros offense yet. And, he’s already had a rough time with Michael Brantley in the past.

In a whopping 55 lifetime PA’s against Scherzer, Brantley is 17-for-49 with eight doubles, a triple, and a homer. That adds up to a .347 BA, a .612 SLG and a .409 wOBA, plus he’s struck out just twice while walking four times.

How has Brantley found so much success against the dominant Scherzer?

Well, as Scherzer continues to throw primarily fastballs:

Brantley continues to smash fastballs — more so as the years go on:

This season, Brantley’s batting .393 with a .460 wOBA against fastballs while whiffing an impossibly low 8.2% of the time. Plus, his average exit velocity on the pitch group is close to 92 mph, and it’s almost 94 mph on his batted balls against Scherzer.

Such a high exit velo has produced super high expected statistics. Brantley has an xBA over .500 and an xSLG close to .700 lifetime against Scherzer.

I’m banking on Brantley squaring up one of Scherzer’s deadly fastballs and taking it for a ride tonight. Therefore, I’m going to play his over bases at plus-money and enjoy the show.

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