The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox on September 21, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
- Red Sox vs Rays picks: Rays Team Total Over 3.5 -115
My Red Sox vs Rays best bet is the Rays team total over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 100o / -120u | -130 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 100o / -120u | +110 |
Red Sox vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| Connelly Early (BOS) | Stat | Joe Boyle (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 0.87/2.02 | ERA /xERA | 4.64/3.92 |
| 0.24/1.43 | FIP / xFIP | 4.60/4.75 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 40.5 | K-BB% | 12.4 |
| 50 | GB% | 41.9 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 114 | Location+ | 85 |
Doug Ziefel’s Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's safe to say the Red Sox rookie left-hander has been extremely impressive to this point. Through his first two career starts, he's allowed just one run on 10 hits and has struck out 18.
Impressively, he's allowed zero barrels and has an average exit velocity of just 86.1. However, while there are no clear signs of regression, this will be just his third career start, and it's going to take place in a hitters' ballpark against a lineup that has hit lefties very well lately.
Over the last month, the Rays rank 13th in wRC+ and OPS against lefties. This Tampa Bay team has also hit very well at George M. Steinbrenner Field, boasting a .311 BABIP and a 107 wRC+.
Also, Early is just a piece of the Red Sox pitching puzzle tonight as he is expected to go around five innings. Behind him is a question mark, as all four of Boston's high-leverage relievers threw yesterday.
With regression coming for Early and the Red Sox bullpen taxed, the door is wide open for another strong offensive performance from the Rays at their home park.
Back them by taking their team total over.
Pick: Rays Team Total Over 3.5 -115
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
I lean towards the over in this matchup.
