The Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Guardians on September 19, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Twins Prediction
- Guardians vs Twins picks: Under 8
My Guardians vs Twins best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Twins Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -197 | 8 -101o / -115u | -103 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +165 | 8 -101o / -115u | -117 |
Guardians vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE) | Stat | RHP Pablo López (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 1.84 / 3.14 | ERA /xERA | 2.64 / 3.79 |
| 2.50 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.17 / 3.84 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 15.0% | K-BB% | 18.0% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 38.5% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 109 | Location+ | 109 |
Collin Whitchurch’s Guardians vs Twins Preview
The Guardians are cutting into the Tigers' lead; they've been on fire lately. They've won seven straight games, winning 12 of 13 and 13 of 15. But it's been because they're pitching, not because they're hitting.
They've scored more than four runs just four times despite going 13 and 2. That's what is kind of remarkable, considering they've won 13 of those games. Pitching has just been dominant for the Guardians.
I have a favorite tonight in Parker Messick, the Cleveland Pitching Factory regularly churned out guys like Messick, polished college pitchers coming up that they were fine into workable mid-rotation starters. With him, Tanner Bibee, and Gavin Williams, I don't know if they necessarily have the next Corey Kluber or Shane Bieber among these guys. But Messick is a strike-throwing lefty.
He's got five pitches, a hard thinker that induces a fair share. Grounders have a 50% ground ball rate so far in five starts. I have little doubt he's going to get through what's left of this Minnesota lineup. Cleveland's bullpen is less rested than Minnesota's. The Guardians played yesterday. They completed a sweep of the Tigers and Tarik Skubal.
On the other side, the Minnesota bullpen, for all its warts, is at least rested. Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, and Michael Tonkin. All of them were off yesterday. The twins were off yesterday. Tonkin hasn't pitched since Tuesday. Sands has only thrown once in the last five days, Funderburk twice. They are not the most reliable arms, but they are the most reliable arms on the twins.
Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The only Guardians who's thrown him back-to-back days entering tonight is Tim Herrin. So, you know, they've worked a lot, but they're not coming into this game particularly exhausted. And also with Cleveland in the thick of the playoff race, they're going to go to the Cade Smiths of the world if they need to, if the game is close late. Most importantly, though, neither of these offenses scares me.
However, I'm happy to back these two starting pitchers against these two offenses, Parker Messick against Pablo Lopez.
The issue with taking unders in twins games, of course, is that they have arguably the worst bullpen in baseball since trading everyone under the sun at the deadline — probably the second-worst bullpen to the Rockies and definitely the worst in the American League.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
I don't see value on Moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from run line bets.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I like the Under in tonight's Pitchers' duel.
