MLB Odds, Preview, Predictionfor White Sox vs. Yankees: Can Gerrit Cole Rebound from Poor Outing? (Saturday, May 22)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole.
- The Yankees and White Sox meet for the second time of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium for some matinee Saturday baseball.
- Even with one of MLB's best lineups, Chicago is a +179 underdog facing New York's Gerrit Cole.
- The White Sox are starting a pretty good pitcher themselves in Dylan Cease, and D.J. James thinks both starters could be in for a strong afternoon.
White Sox vs. Yankees Odds
|White Sox Odds||+179|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.|
Any run off of a strong pitcher seemingly makes up twice its normal value. In this matchup, you have possibly the league’s most effective pitcher in Gerrit Cole facing a young up-and-comer in Dylan Cease.
Somehow, the Texas Rangers tagged Gerrit Cole for five earned runs the other night. Dylan Cease has not given up more than three earned runs in a start. Although Gerrit Cole is the more notable name between the two, there should not be much of a difference in the starters, but how many runs can cross the plate in this marquee pitching duel?
White Sox May Be Able to Hit Cole
The White Sox have the one of the strongest hitting lineups in MLB, much stronger than that of the Rangers who forced Gerrit Cole out of the game in five innings of work. As much as the national media loves to discuss the White Sox success against left-handed pitching, they still have a 110 wRC+ off of righties with a 10.8% walk rate.
They have enough weapons, shockingly to hit a righty. Only Leury García, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal have somewhat struggled against right-handers this season, so if manager Tony La Russa were to use some platoons, like Jake Lamb in place of García in the outfield, they would be able to mitigate the risk of making more outs. Even in only 25 plate appearances, Billy Hamilton has been on base 11 times off of Cole. The Sox have some wiggle room with their depth pieces.
The White Sox rank fourth in bullpen combined xFIP. They do not have a leg up on the Yankees in this department, but they are relatively even. Liam Hendriks looked sharp in his outing to close down game three of their series against Minnesota on Wednesday. Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer have shown success in their high-leverage usage, as well. For the White Sox, this is probably the weakest part of their team, but if they have at least a few of these pieces available for the outing on Saturday, they should be in good shape.
Yankees Hitters Working Count is Key
For the Yankees, they have a league-average lineup. With Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined, fans can see why. Since May 1, they have a 97 wRC+, so this does not seem to be improving all that much.
Outside of Aaron Judge, D.J. Lemahieu and Gio Urshela, the rest of the lineup looks brutal. Gleyber Torres has not lived up to expectations yet this season. Luke Voit has had a few good games, but has not quite caught a rhythm since coming off of the Injured List in early May. They do have plenty of players who can work the count, and Dylan Cease’s largest weakness is control. If they can force a few extra pitches in each plate appearance, they could put pressure on the young righty.
As stated above, the Yankees have a slightly better bullpen than the White Sox but not by too much. They have 3.51 xFIP and 2.81 ERA, so their recent success could taper off a little bit. They have plenty of options from their closer, Aroldis Chapman to side-armer Darren O’Day. However, if this is a close one down the stretch, do not expect the lefty-killing White Sox to back down from the challenge of Aroldis Chapman. That lineup can negate the advantage the flamethrower usually has over other teams, strictly because he pitches from the left side.
White Sox-Yankees Pick
In this one, the White Sox have a hitting advantage, but Gerrit Cole could get back on track after a sloppy start against Texas. Dylan Cease needs his control in this one but the Yankee lineup is not as daunting as expected. Prepare to not see many runs in this matchup. Expect it to come down the wire, but take the under in the hopes of no extra innings. Play to 7 (-125).
Pick: Under 7 (+106)