The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
After a rough start to the season, Week 2 of the Contender Series delivered plenty of action, with four finishes and five contracts awarded. Hopefully we keep some of that momentum into Week 3, where we have five fights with mostly lopsided betting lines.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 3 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, August 26, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 3 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 3 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 3 Odds & Best Bets
Heavyweight: Donte Johnson (-250) vs. Darion Abbey (+205)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 3 of the Contender Series is a celebration of the big boys, with fights in each of the three heaviest UFC weight classes. That starts with the opening fight, a heavyweight clash between Americans Donte Johnson and Darion Abbey.
The favored Johnson has fought primarily at light heavyweight throughout his career and weighed in at just 209 lbs — small for even a light heavyweight — for this matchup. I wouldn't be shocked for him to move down one or even two weight classes should he be signed to the UFC.
He's 5-0 as a professional with each of his wins coming via strikes in the first round, but just one of his opponents has a winning record when they met. Despite the fast finishes he's somewhat patient on the feet, but throws extended combos with good speed (especially for the heavyweight division) when he enters the pocket.
He uses a ton of energy at range, moving constantly to set up angles and manage the distance since he's relatively short at 6'0" even for a light heavyweight. That's going to be a critical element of his fight against Abbey, who stands 6'6" and is more of a true heavyweight.
Abbey could also be planning a move to 205, though, weighing in at 219 lbs for this matchup after previously competing in the 240lbs range. He's more experienced at 7-4, with some additional kickboxing and bare knuckle MMA experience.
He's also fought tougher competition, with two of his losses coming to TUF Season 31 competitors, one coming to UFC and Bellator vet Tim Johnson, and the fourth coming to a 5-0 fighter when Abbey was making his pro debut.
Abbey is also primarily a striker, who operates from an upright stance where he kicks from range. He's fairly patient, picking his spots to attack, but not necessarily counterstriking so much as waiting for his moment.
He's a bit chinny, getting dropped twice in his fight this February, but showed good wrestling and grappling when hurt. That's obviously a concern against the powerful Johnson, who could certainly test his chin.
However, the underdog is the more well-rounded and experienced fighter here, and should be able to pull away if he's not finished early. The best way to play this is Abbey live should he survive the first few minutes, but I'm fine with a prefight position on the underdog as well.
Prediction: Darion Abbey in Rounds 2/3
Billy's Bet: Darion Abbey +205 (DraftKings) | Or Abbey Live
Lightweight: Manoel Sousa (-285) Christian Perez (+230)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
The second fight of the night this week features two exciting one-loss lightweight prospects, with Mexico's Christian "Puas" Perez taking on Brazil's Menoel Sousa.
Sousa is the more well-known of the two, with a 12-1 pro record and a win over UFC standout Mauricio Ruffy. Like Ruffy he's a powerful striker with plenty of Muay Thai experience, allegedly having an undefeated record through more than 20 muay thai fights — I say allegedly due to the lack of record keeping in many kickboxing matches.
His lone loss came to the undefeated Archie Colgan, one of the top lightweights in Bellator/PFL. Colgan was able to exploit Sousa's relatively shaky wrestling and control him to a decision, but Sousa is solid everywhere else.
He has good size and power for the division, plus a straightforward and brutal Muay Thai strikign style with heavy leg kicks and big punches. He's finished 10 of his 12 pro wins, despite fighting relatively difficult competition in Bellator and PFL plus the Brazilian regional scene.
Perez is the lighter and faster athlete in this matchup, and also has 10 finishes on his 13-1 pro record. His lone loss came in the third fight of a one-night Combate Global tournament in November of 2021, and he's gone 5-0 with four finishes since then.
He's solid on the feet, with a somewhat Karate inspired style with long kicks from range. Where he really stands out is his grappling game, though.
In one of the fights I watched he started the contest by sprinting across the cage for an Imanari roll, and while he wasn't able to get a bite on his opponent's leg he has a past win via heel hook. He also has shown excellent Judo throws from the clinch, and some creative submissions — including one listed as an arm triangle but actually more of an arm-in rear naked choke (or "Ruotolotine" for the grappling fans).
While Perez is a deserving underdog thanks to his athletic deficiencies relative to Sousa, I believe his grappling could be an ace in the hole here. For that reason, I'm taking a sprinkle on his submission prop at +900 via DraftKings, in this striker vs. grappler matchup.
Prediction: Christian Perez by submission
Billy's Bets: Perez Sub +900 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweight: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (-1100) vs. Alik Lorenz (+700)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
On a night notable for it's wide betting lines, the longest odds belong to light heavyweight prospect Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev.
The Chechnya-born, Turkey based fighter is 6-0 as a professional, largely winning thanks to an overpowering grappling game. I was somewhat impressed by his smooth striking, but he uses it almost exclusively as a tool to set up takedown opportunities, where he then dominates from top position.
He's the current champion in French promotion Ares FC, where he's picked up consecutive first round submissions. It's worth pointing out that the French MMA scene is largely dominated by strikers, though, and Yakhyaev won't have such an obvious grappling edge against American wrestlers, Brazilian submission grapplers, etc.
He will probably have a pronounced edge against Alik Lorenz, however. Lorenz is a software engineer by day and MMA fighter by night, training out of MMA Lab in Arizona. He's 6-1 as a pro, with his lone career loss coming via quick knockout against fellow DWCS Week 3 competitor Darion Abbey.
Lorenz looks awkward even in victory, as he's a below-average athlete by UFC standards with a plodding style. However, when he lands it's effective, and he uses his solid length (6'3" tall with a 77" reach) to wear down opponents with distance strikes.
I was impressed by his grappling, though, as he was able to use his length to create space on the bottom, and capitalize on his opponents getting over-aggressive to work his way back to the feet or top position.
Yakhyaev will need to be careful to not rush things on the ground, but he'll find eventual success thanks to his superior athleticism there. My read is this fight is somewhat closer than the odds would indicate, but it's hard to see a path for Lorenz outright.
Instead, I'm going to take the over 1.5 rounds at +180 via DraftKings, and hope Lorenz can survive at least 7.5 minutes before eventually succumbing. The Iowa native is tough if nothing else, and that's a fairly big price for the prop at 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev via ground and pound
Billy's Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds +180 (DraftKings)
Featherweight: Marcio Barbosa (-440) vs. Damon Wilson (+340)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
As with most of the Week 3 card, it's fairly apparent that the UFC is looking to showcase Marcio Barbosa more than give him a true test, as they probably aren't all that excited to get into the Damon Wilson business.
Wilson is a 9-2 32 year old, with the best wins on his resume coming against a pair of 6-4 opponents. Wilson is originally from the midwest, but now trains at Alliance MMA in San Diego while fighting exclusively for the British promotion Cage Warriors.
He's a well-rounded fighter whose best attribute is his clinch game, where he's finished each of his last two opponents with knees to the head. While he has a wrestling background he obviously prefers to strike, as I noted a few instances where he let his opponent up from their back in order to engage on the feet again.
He takes a fair bit of damage on the feet thanks to his relative lack of speed, but is plenty durable and capable of wading throw shots in order to establish the clinch. That's an admirable but dangerous quality to posses, especially against higher-level opponents.
Which Barbosa certainly is. The Brazilian holds a 16-2 pro record, with one of the two losses coming to UFC fighter Gabriel Santos. Still just 27, Barbosa has tons of experience for his age, and fought tough opposition in his native Brazil before going 3-1 for the larger LFA promotion.
He has the classic Brazilian striking style, with a high guard, bouncy footwork, and aggressive stalking style. He's out to finish people with strikes, and has a vicious left hook that he catches people with as they attempt to close the distance.
Which is bad news for Wilson, as he'll need to keep this fight to close quarters in order to have a chance against the faster more dynamic opponent, but getting it there is a dangerous game.
Unfortunately, Barbosa is -275 to win via knockout, and I'm not willing to lay that juice on a single method of victory. Instead, I'll take a slight sprinkle at Barbosa via submission at +800 odds — he's a BJJ black belt and Luta Livre (Brazilian nogi grappling art) Brown Belt with two submission victories, and a "club and sub" might be the easiest method to dispatch the durable American.
I'm officially predicting the chalk outcome of a Barbosa KO, but the sub prop is the better bet.
Prediction: Marcio Barbosa by knockout
Billy's Bet: Barbosa Submission +800 (DK)
Middleweight: Ryan Gandra (-535) vs. Trent Miller (+400)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:40 p.m. ET
The final fight on Week 3 is another likely uncompetitive matchup, as 7-1 Brazilian Ryan Gandra is more than a five-to-one favorite against American Trent Miller.
Miller is an Xtreme Couture product with an 8-2 record, but digging deeper into his resume paints a less optimistic picture. His losses were both via submission to fairly mediocre opponents, and the only fighter he beat with a record more than one win above .500 was via split decision.
On the plus side, he's a big, powerful striker with solid wrestling. He's not the most accurate or dynamic on the feet, but he throws everything with intent, including leg kicks from the outside. He's finished seven of his eight pro wins, with six of those via knockout.
He also slowed down noticeably in the back half of his split decision win, still throwing heavily but with far less frequency, while taking some fairly sloppy shots in an effort to get on top and get to a rest position.
I would've awarded both the second and third round to his opponent (as one judge did) in that matchup, but he got progressively worse throughout the fight.
Gandra is also something of a brawler, swinging wildly on the feet but with more speed and intensity than Miller. He's finished five of his seven wins with three knockouts and two submissions, notably going 2-0 in fights that go to decisions.
He's also fought somewhat tougher competition, dispatching a 4-0 prospect in the first round of his last fight at LFA 197.
Gandra's grappling defense looked solid in the limited opportunities where it was tested, and he was able to reverse wrestling attempts from his opponents with trips and throws. I'm not sure if he has a formal Judo background, but he seems well versed in clinch and upper body takedowns.
That's going to be important in this matchup, as those takedowns have a somewhat lower energy demand than wrestling-style shots, and gives him an ace in the hole late in the fight if both fighters are tired.
This fight is juiced heavily to end via knockout (-250) and with a Gandra knockout specifically (-175). I see the biggest edge for Gandra being when this fight extends, so instead of picking a method, I'll be playing an SGP of Gandra's moneyline and the fight to start Round 2, which is -120 at DraftKings. The SGP functionality isn't available yet, but with the -120 odds on the round prop we should get to plus money.
Prediction: Ryan Gandra by knockout
Billy's Bet: Gandra and Fight to Start Round 2 SGP (TBD)
