Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Odds
| Dariush Odds | +164 |
| Saint-Denis Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-160/+124) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Ranked lightweights Beneil Dariush and Benoit Saint-Denis are both jockeying for position in the UFC's deepest division, and desperately need to extend their winning streaks to have any hope of staying in title contention. That's doubly true for the 36-year-old Dariush, who likely only has one last run in him before his skills begin to decline. Can he get it done at UFC 322 against the dangerous Frenchman, or are his best days already in the rear view mirror?
Here's my Dariush vs. Saint-Denis pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Saint-Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-6-1 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:10 | 7:35 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/6/1989 | 12/18/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.78 | 5.05 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.61 | 4.19 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.12 | 4.35 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 37% |
| TD Def | 82% | 70% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 1.6 |
Beneil Dariush was arguably one fight away from a title shot when Charles Oliveira knocked him out. "Do Bronx" had just lost his title to Islam Makhachev, and the UFC was in the market for new blood to challenge the now-former lightweight champion. Dariush followed up that defeat with another knockout loss at the hands of Arman Tsarukyan, and it looked like his days as a contender may be over.
That is, until he bounced back with an upset over Renato Moicano — the same Renato Moicano who had recently dominated Benoit Saint-Denis for a second-round stoppage. That performance was vintage Benny, landing all five of his takedown attempts and controlling Moicano on the ground to a 29-28 victory. In true Dariush form, he was also dropped in the first round and nearly finished, but was able to recover before taking over in the later rounds.
Dariush isn't a bad striker. He uses kicks well to maintain range, has 57% striking defense, and a solidly positive striking differential. He also has plenty of power, dropping Mateusz Gamrot in their fight. Unfortunately for him, his always suspect chin seems to have fully left him. While he was able to recover against Moicano, the shot that the former featherweight landed didn't appear particularly damaging, and it's nearly impossible to avoid taking at least one shot like that at some point in a fight.
On the plus side, his elite grappling makes him a tough matchup for Saint-Denis. While the Frenchman can bang on the feet, he's at his best beating people up on the ground. When facing fighters with superior grappling — or even enough defensive grappling to force stand-ups — he's struggled to win fights.
That was most evident in his own fight against Moicano. Saint-Denis got taken down in the first twenty seconds of that fight and didn't make it back to his feet until the horn saved him at the end of the round. He also took so much damage that round that the doctor eventually called a halt to the bout due to the cut over his eye. While Dariush isn't as aggressive with strikes on the ground, he's clearly a superior grappler to Moicano, as he proved in their meeting.
Since that loss, Saint-Denis is 2-0 with two stoppage wins against Kyle Prepolec (who took the fight on extremely short notice) and Mauricio Ruffy. Neither of those instill much confidence in his ability to take on superior grapplers, as neither of those men has landed a takedown in the UFC.
This fight will be the first chance to see if Saint-Denis has truly improved, or was given more favorable matchups than he had during his brief losing streak. If he's improved his takedown defense since facing Moicano, he'll be able to find the killshot on the feet against Dariush. If he hasn't — or if he initiates the grappling himself — he could be in for a long night on his back.
Dariush vs. Saint-Denis Pick, Prediction
One factor I didn't mention above that could prove critical is the cardio dynamics.
Saint-Denis has never won a fight that's made it to the third round, and has faded badly in the second round in all three of his UFC losses. He was stopped in the second frame against Dustin Poirier and Moicano, and lost 10-8 on all three judges' scorecards in his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski.
On the other hand, Dariush is 10-0 in his career in fights that make it to a decision, while typically building throughout the fight. It's a bit of a cop out angle, but my best bet here is truly Dariush live. Even if we get a worse price, it would be worth paying for the knowledge that Dariush survived the most dangerous period.
From a prefight standpoint, sprinkles on Saint-Denis in Round 1 at +275 or Dariush in Round 2 at +850 are both fun options.
Billy's Pick: Beneil Dariush live after Round 1 (TBD)
