Read our UFC Qatar predictions for Saturday, November 22. The event will be live from the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Doha, Qatar. The prelim card airs on ESPN+ starting at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the entire event airing on ESPN+.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Qatar Moneyline Projections
UFC Qatar Prop Projections
Denzel Freeman vs. Marek Bujlo
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 a.m. ET
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 a.m. ET
I usually make a point to use the best bets column to highlight a bet I haven't written up elsewhere, as picking a "best" bet is hard. That's not the case this week. I already loved betting on Almakhan at -108 on Monday, and the line has swung back the other way since then. Almakhan is now a slight underdog, with odds as high as +125 on Caesars.
"The Turan Warrior" made his UFC debut in 2024 against Umar Nurmagomedov, who's pretty clearly the second-best bantamweight in the world. Despite coming in on short notice, Almakhan became the first man to knock Nurmagomedov down, though he was controlled for the rest of the fight. He followed that up with a 64-second knockout over Brad Katona, who had never been previously finished in 19 pro fights.
That doesn't give us much information about Almakhan other than he falls somewhere between Brad Katona and Umar Nurmagomedov in terms of ability. That statement is true for 70+ bantamweights. However, we also learned he has massive power, and given his record in his native Kazakhstan, I'd be surprised if he wasn't a plus-grappler as well.
Topuria won a fairly lackluster decision in his UFC debut, which came against a fighter who took the fight on just a few days' notice. He stayed safe with 70% takedown defense, but landed less than three significant strikes per minute and a single takedown.
He's most notable for being the older brother of lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, which I believe is strongly influencing the market his way. His pre-UFC fights came against much lesser competition, and he doesn't appear to have any single standout ability.
Almakhan has the power, if nothing else, and could easily steal rounds or end things in a hurry with one big shot. Topuria will need to be perfect for 15 minutes, which I'm not sure he's capable of. That makes Almakhan a screaming value at plus-money.
The Pick: Bekzat Almakhan +125 (Caesars)
