Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Qatar (Saturday, November 22)

Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai Odds

Check out the Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

It is quite rare to see a UFC matchup in which two fighters are changing weight classes, but that is the exact intrigue surrounding Myktybek Orolbai versus Jack Hermannson. Orolbai will be returning to welterweight after having trouble making the lightweight limit, while Hermannson will attempt to reignite his career at age 37 in a new division. There are more questions than answers when analyzing this fight – which means leaning into the volatility and backing the underdog is likely the route that presents the most value.

Here's my Hermansson vs. Orolbai pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Orolbai is a classic pressure fighter that doesn’t really have a plan B in case his approach is thwarted. Orolbai’s relentless style has generated nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes during his time in the UFC. In his only loss, Mateusz Rebecki obliged him, surprisingly beating Orolbai at his own game in a fight of the year candidate type brawl that is difficult to forget given the damage both men absorbed.

Jack Hermannson, at this stage of his career, does not have the durability to withstand such an encounter and it would be wise of him to use his experience to avoid this style of fight. Hermansson has a three inch height and reach advantage, which could make distant management and counter grappling his clearest path to victory.

Orolbai has good power in his right hand, but he’ll need to close the distance and land it inside the pocket to put Hermannson away. While it’s impossible for Hermannson to completely keep a safe distance from such an aggressive fighter, he has made a career out of fighting smart and has done it against bigger men with immense power.

I’d be more confident in picking the underdog Hermannson if this fight was scheduled for five rounds, but oddsmakers have given bettors quite the discount on someone who was a middleweight contender not too long ago. Hermannson has wins over Joe Pyfer, Chris Curtis and Kelvin Gastelum; even going toe to toe with former champion Sean Strickland in what amounted to a pure striking match.

I expect Orolbai to be successful in his takedown attempts, but Hermannson’s high-level counter-wrestling and submission offense could assist him in both reversing position and getting back to his feet. Hermannson does boast an 80% takedown defense over the course of his career, so if I am incorrect in assessing Orolbai’s ability to get him to the mat, the line on this fight will show tremendous value on the underdog.

Oralbai vs. Hermannson Pick, Prediction

There is no way to know how much the weight cut will take out of Hermannson at his advanced age, especially considering this is the first time he has made the cut. There also isn’t a specific measure to assess how far gone the durability of an aging fighter is at this point, but I simply cannot get on board with Orolbai making this look easy after the level of competition Hermannson has endured since joining the UFC in 2016.

I am willing to play Hermannson at his current price, but I believe waiting for +215 to +220 may be attainable closer to fight time.

John's Pick:  Jack Hermannson +210 (ESPN Bet)

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