Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates Odds
| Edwards Odds | +164 |
| Prates Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former welterweight champion Leon Edwards has lost two consecutive fights following his undefeated run from 2015 to 2023. Things will not be any easier as he faces the dangerous Carlos Prates this weekend, in what has become a loaded welterweight division. If either man is successful in executing their gameplan, there are two paths to victory here that are most likely; let’s dive into what they are and how to bet it.
Here's my Edwards vs. Prates pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Edwards | Prates | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-5 | 22-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:19 | 9:08 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/25/1991 | 8/17/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.62 | 3.82 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.42 | 4.80 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.18 | 0.23 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 100% |
| TD Def | 63% | 84% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
At first glance, it may seem like this line is too wide, as the former champion Edwards can be had at +160 against someone who lost their only UFC fight against a true contender. I suspect that price may rise even higher, as the hype behind Prates has only increased even after his loss earlier this year against Ian Machado Garry.
Garry was able to mix up his attack beautifully by using excellent footwork to stick and move, never allowing Prates to cut off the cage and coral him. Garry eventually landed four takedowns in rounds 3 and 4, but it wasn’t easy, as Prates showed strong takedown defense in denying Garry's 15 other attempts. Even then, Prates almost closed the show in round 5 by landing damaging shots in what would have been one of the better comeback victories of the year.
Leon Edwards needs to follow a similar game plan if he is going to pull off an upset. Edwards has proven to be a high-level grappler himself, as his wrestling ability played a major part in every one of his wins en route to the top of the division.
I have my doubts that Edwards’ plodding style will net the same results Garry had against Prates, but he needs to pursue the takedown at all costs. Even if the result of doing so is just limiting the time this fight plays out in space at kickboxing range.
If Edwards can use dynamic footwork and mix up his attack, Prates has shown he can have moments of inactivity. Before round 5 in Prates’ bout with Garry, he had landed just 10.2 significant strikes per round, while Garry landed more than twice that amount before Prates almost found the fight-ending power shot.
Edwards is a very good striker in his own right, but there are levels in MMA. Looking back at his ascent, Kamaru Usman and Nate Diaz were the best strikers he came across. Avoiding the power shots of Prates will prove to be a much more difficult task if Edwards is content to stand in front of his opponent for a prolonged period multiple times in this fight.
Geoff Neal, a seasoned striker who had never suffered a knockout in his UFC career, couldn't even last a round standing in front of the ultra-dangerous Brazilian kickboxer. Prates has also proven he can carry his power until the final bell – Edwards simply cannot afford to allow too many openings to present themselves in this spot versus the hungry Prates.
Edwards vs. Prates Pick, Prediction
Prates has hurt or finished every opponent he has been in the octagon with since his UFC debut. I do not want to stand in the way of his rise by backing Edwards here, but, notably, oddsmakers have started to move this line back in the direction of the underdog after some real money has come in on the former champion around the +175 range.
The best way to play this fight is by taking the two most likely paths to victories, and we can do that by looking at UFC Specials: Featured Fight Specials on FanDuel. In the case Edwards is triumphant by grounding Prates, I am skeptical he finds a finish; and if the fight plays out in Prates’ favor, we’d also win if he scores yet another spectacular knockout.
John's Pick: Leon Edwards by points or Carlos Prates by KO/TKO -165 (FanDuel)
