Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry Odds
| Muhammad Odds | +220 |
| Garry Odds | -270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-345/+250) |
| Location | Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Doha, Qatar |
| Bout Time | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Qatar odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Qatar with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
As with the main event in Qatar, the co-main event is very likely to be a number-one contender fight for one competitor. In this case, it's Ian Garry, who has gone 9-1 in the UFC with his only loss a competitive decision against Shavkhat Rakhmonov, who had finished all 18 of his prior wins. Despite that setback, a win over former champion Belal Muhammad likely earns him a title shot in the near future.
Here's my Muhammad vs. Garry pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Muhammad | Garry | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-4 | 16-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:23 | 14:44 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/9/1988 | 11/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.46 | 4.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.78 | 2.77 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.24 | 1.02 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 33% |
| TD Def | 90% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.4 |
When breaking down fights between UFC veterans, one thing I find helpful is to watch how either fighter has handled stylistically similar opposition in the past.
That's an easier task with Muhammad, who has been paired with stylistically and anthropomorphically similar opponents Leon Edwards (twice) and Stephen Thompson. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style has worked well against taller and longer opponents, with Muhammad wisely driving his opponents back to the fence and wrestling from the clinch, rather than shooting from a distance.
Not only is Muhammad an excellent fence wrestler, but this strategy eliminates the risk inherent in attempting takedowns at range. Shooting from distance can lead to uppercuts and knees on the way in, as well as pull counters and check hooks on the way out from unsuccessful attempts.
He was especially impressive in his title win over Edwards, who is known for his solid grappling against the fence. Muhammad landed nine takedowns and over 12 minutes of control time in that five-round fight, including at least one takedown in every round.
While wrestling is the A-game for "Remember the Name," he's also an underrated striker. With a relatively straightforward boxing style, his hands are fast, and he stays safe defensively. He's been knocked out just once in his career, and it was so long ago that fellow Chicagoan Barack Obama was still president of the United States.
Unfortunately, Muhammad seems to have bought the hype around his own striking ability a bit too much since the knockout win over Sean Brady, threatening to outbox Ian Garry this weekend. We'll see how much he means it, but that certainly wouldn't be my suggested game plan if I were in his camp for this fight.
The closest comparison to Muhammad on Garry's record is probably Shavkhat Rakhmonov, who handed Garry his only career loss. It's admittedly not a great overall comparison, but Rakhmonov used a Muhammad-esque approach in the early rounds of his fight with Garry, winning the first two rounds primarily by pinning Garry along the fence. Rakhmonov wasn't able to land a takedown until Round 4, but had already banked two rounds at that point.
Garry is a better overall grappler than Edwards or Thompson, with a Judo black belt earned at the age of 18. He's used his grappling offensively in most of his wins, but will need to rely on it defensively against Muhammad. The problem with his Judo-based grappling game is that most Judo throws are hard to execute with your back on the fence, and "The Future" will likely struggle to turn the shorter, stockier Muhammad.
At space, his timing, speed, and power are all clearly a notch above Muhammad's. What dictates this fight will be how much time is spent at range, with Garry trying to maximize that amount and Muhammad trying to limit it.
The other unknown here is how much improvement we'll see from Garry. He's nearly a decade younger and has shown huge leaps almost every time he steps foot in the Octagon. He went from struggling through a split decision against #14 welterweight Geoff Neal in early 2024 to a dominant win over #5 Carlos Prates a year later.
Muhammad vs. Garry Pick, Prediction
The other key factor in this fight is the cardio dynamics. This one is unfortunately scheduled for just three rounds, and Garry has won just one of the four championship rounds he's competed in across his last two fights. His style theoretically isn't particularly taxing on the cardio, but he seems to fade down the stretch past the 15-minute mark.
If this were a five-round fight, I'd feel somewhat comfortable taking an outright shot on the underdog here. As it stands now, my preferred option is Belal Muhammad's + 3.5 point spread at DraftKings, which is now -130.
Garry isn't a particularly potent finisher, and Muhammad is extremely durable, so odds are this one gets to the judges. If it does, we'll just need a single round to go Muhammad's way to cover the spread, which I believe he can accomplish via cage control even if he's unable to land takedowns.
Billy's Pick: Belal Muhammad +3.5 -130 (DraftKings)
