Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev Odds
| Maddalena Odds | +245 |
| Makhachev Odds | -305 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
After four defenses of his lightweight title, Islam Makhachev has a chance to surpass his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov and cement his name as one of the greatest fighters of all time by winning a title in a second division. It won't be easy, as Australia's Jack Della Maddalena is on an 18-fight winning streak and seems to be making massive improvements every time he steps into the Octagon.
Here's my Maddalena vs. Makhachev pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Maddalena | Makhachev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-2 | 27-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:32 | 10:12 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 70" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 9/10/1996 | 10/21/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.84 | 2.63 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.53 | 1.55 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.16 | 3.2 |
| TD Acc | 11% | 53% |
| TD Def | 69% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.1 |
What fascinates me about this fight is that it still feels like we don't truly know how good he is. While he defended the lightweight title four times, two of those came against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, one was against a well-past-his-prime Dustin Poirier, and the last came against Renato Moicano, who accepted the fight the night before after Makhachev's original opponent was forced out of the fight.
Interestingly enough, all of those men were former featherweights, as was the man he defeated to win the title, Charles Oliveira. For a massive lightweight like Makhachev, being bigger and stronger than most of the opponents he faced was clearly an edge.
Which isn't to take anything away from his skills. While the obvious comparison is to his mentor and training partner Khabib, Makhachev is a far better striker who has proven capable of winning fights that never make it to the ground, something we rarely saw from Khabib. While he doesn't put out much volume on the feet, he's highly accurate with big power and can capitalize against opponents who hyper-fixate on his takedown threat.
Makhachev's grappling is still his A-game, of course. He might be the best wrestler of all the Dagestani fighters. "Wrestler" in this context isn't a synonym for "takedown artist" but a reflection on how he gets fights to the mat. Whereas Khabib and company had a strong Sambo background that led to primarily clinch takedowns and grappling along the fence, Makhachev has an excellent wrestling-style shot that is his primary takedown threat.
That wasn't always the case, as he was more reliant on trips and throws early in his career, but he has gradually become more comfortable shooting at range, especially when he forces his opponent past the inner black line of the Octagon.
That ability will be especially important when fighting at a higher weight class. Jack Della Maddalena has three inches of reach on Makhachev and will attempt to maintain the distance with his crisp footwork while landing strikes at a distance.
Given Makhachev's ability to close that distance with a shot — and his somewhat obvious plan of doing so when his opponent steps behind the black line — Maddalena will need to be extremely mindful of where he is in the cage at all times.
Which isn't something I would've thought him capable of executing until he defeated Belal Muhammad to win the welterweight title:
He was able to defend six of Muhammad's nine takedown attempts in that fight, while largely deterring the American from attempting takedowns. When he did find himself grounded, he was able to execute the Craig Jones-devised get-up game that we first saw utilized by Alexander Volkanovski in his fight with Makhachev.
The broad strokes of the plan are a heavy reliance on octopus guard from bottom position in order to create scrambles, plus wrestling-style switches if and when the opponent gets behind their hips. This works well in tandem, since the drawback of octopus guard is exposing your back, while the drawback of switches is potentially being flattened into bottom half or side control.
It wouldn't surprise me if this system worked even better against Makhachev than Muhammad, since the Dagestani top game focuses so heavily on doing damage from top half guard, and octopus guard sweeps and escapes are most potent from bottom half.
Assuming he can keep this one standing, Maddalena should have a clear edge on the feet with his crisp and powerful boxing. He lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute, has 64% striking defense, and has landed six knockdowns in eight UFC appearances. Makhachev isn't a bad striker by any means, but Maddalena is truly elite.
Maddalena vs. Makhachev Pick, Prediction
While both men are much more well-rounded than they're given credit for, this is still largely a binary fight. If it takes place on the ground, Makhachev will almost surely come out on top, while if it remains standing, the edge goes to Maddalena.
Skill for skill, Makhachev is the overall better fighter, but he'll be facing a bigger and stronger opponent for the first time in his career. Given the success Volkanovski had in returning to his feet, I expect Maddalena, who is two weight classes larger, to be able to follow a similar path. Especially since this is his second consecutive camp with Craig Jones, who was the architect of Volkanovski's defensive grappling. Plus, at just 29 years old, he should still be improving in each fight.
The one true flaw in Makhachev's game may just be his chin. His only career loss was a quick knockout to Adriano Martins, and he was dropped by Volkanovski and hurt by Dustin Poirier. JDM is a bigger and more powerful striker than all of those men.
As predicted, this line has gradually shifted towards Makhachev throughout the week (and likely will continue to move as we approach fight time), which makes Maddalena my moneyline choice. However, if he's going to win, I suspect he needs a knockout, as Makhachev will win minutes with his grappling.
Therefore, I'm taking Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO. The best current odds are +510 at BetRivers, though the line may continue to move up throughout the day.
Billy's Pick: Jack Della Maddalena by KO/TKO/DQ +510 (BetRivers)
