Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales Odds
| Brady Odds | -142 |
| Morales Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On a night where the welterweight title is up for grabs, we have two of the division's best prospects meeting in the feature bout. Sean Brady is 18-1 with his only loss coming to former champion Belal Muhammad, while Michael Moraels is 18-0 and taking on his first top-ten opponent. A similar spot led to the first setback of Brady's career, but will the same result befall the young Ecuadorian?
Here's my Brady vs. Morales pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Brady | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1 | 18-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:16 | 9:48 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/23/1992 | 6/24/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.00 | 5.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.94 | 3.31 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.62 | 1.09 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 41% |
| TD Def | 86% | 89% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0 |
With fights between UFC veterans, I typically find it useful to look at past fights where either fighter fought a stylistically similar opponent as the one they'll be facing. In the case of Morales, that's not really an option, as the best grappler he's faced in the Octagon was undersized and well past his prime, Gilbert Burns, a far cry from the task he has in front of him tonight.
The good news is that Morales approaches most of his fights with a similar game plan. While he's not especially tall for the division at 6'0", his massive 79" reach allows him to stay on the outside, sniping at his opponents with powerful strikes.
Since he has such a persistent reach advantage in (nearly) every matchup, he's well-versed at using it to his benefit. Morales is comfortable fighting while moving backwards and laterally, working behind a quick jab and inside leg kicks while he looks to set up bigger strikes. He's one of the few fighters capable of landing inside leg kicks while stepping backwards, which often disrupts the movement of shorter opponents pressing forward.
He also uses that range to deter opponents from attempting takedowns, and when they do force the issue, they're often initiated from so far away as to be nearly meaningless.
Morales is extremely patient and more than happy to pick opponents apart from a distance. However, once he starts landing, he'll begin to extend combinations, while also hunting for flying knees that he tries to time around takedown attempts.
What makes all of this work is his elite speed and power combination. He has six knockdowns in as many UFC fights, and has finished four of those via knockout. He brings both one-shot power and the ability to chain together combinations, felling opponents with multiple shots.
Sean Brady's most recent fight is a fairly good litmus test for what he's facing in Morales. He took on fellow UFC 322 main card fighter Leon Edwards in London in May, submitting the former champion in the fourth round. Like Morales, Edwards is a long, rangy striker, though he doesn't have Morales' physical tools, at least not at this point in his career. Edwards is also a southpaw, which changes the dynamic to an extent, but the approach for Brady is somewhat repeatable.
He pressed forward behind a high boxing guard, working his way first into the clinch, and only earnestly attempting takedowns once Edwards was corralled into close quarters. That will be much more effective against Morales than diving for takedowns from range, particularly with Morales' habit of throwing the occasional flying knee to deter wrestling shots.
It was also impressive considering how historically dominant Edwards has been in the clinch. We haven't seen Morales forced to fight against the fence much, but I suspect he's less of a challenge in those positions than Edwards. Brady's top game is also one of the best in MMA right now, so if he can find takedowns, I have no concerns about his ability to use them.
Where things are tougher against Morales than against Edwards is in open space. Morales' inside leg kicks and footwork in general are a challenging puzzle to solve, and the consequences for getting hit are much greater.
While Brady has nearly 60% significant strike defense in the UFC, his loss against Muhammad is the elephant in the room. Brady was knocked out with a flurry of punches along the fence by the notoriously pillow-fisted Muhammad. It may have been an off night, or Muhammad's wrestling threat messed with Brady's defense, but it's hard to ignore in this matchup.
Brady vs. Morales Pick, Prediction
With Brady likely needing to grapple to win the fight and Morales very patient on the feet, I see this as a somewhat binary fight, both in terms of where and when each man will have success. While they both have excellent cardio, Brady's takedowns will be easier to come by early, while Morales' leg kicks and attritional style will pay dividends the longer this one goes.
Therefore, I'll be making one bet prefight while looking for live options as a hedge.
That prefight bet is the point spread on Brady -3.5 at +140 on DraftKings. If he wins this fight, it's because he's able to take down Morales, and he likely dominates the contest or finds a finish on the ground.
However, if Brady wins Round 1, I'll be looking for a live bet on Morales. He could win the fight at any moment, and likely finds more success as the fight wears on. Since I'm aware of the potential of a "reverse middle" where I drop both bets, they'll both be half-unit risks, with plus-money on both sides if it goes according to plan.
Billy's Pick: Sean Brady -3.5 +140 (.5u) | Morales Live after R1
