Check out the Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Shevchenko vs. Zhang pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Shevchenko
Zhang
Record
25-4-1
26-3
Avg. Fight Time
18:44
14:31
Height
5'5"
5'4"
Weight (pounds)
125 lbs.
125 lbs.
Reach (inches)
66"
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Switch
Date of birth
3/7/1988
8/13/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min
3.14
5.15
SS Accuracy
52%
53%
SS Absorbed Per Min
2.06
2.77
SS Defense
63%
54%
Take Down Avg
2.62
2.24
TD Acc
60%
45%
TD Def
75%
74%
Submission Avg
0.3
0.5
Shevchenko vs. Zhang Pick, Prediction
Even though Zhang Weili is moving up from 115 to 125 for this women's superfight, I don't expect Valentina Shevchenko, who previously went up to 135 to fight Amanda Nunes, to have a significant power or physicality advantage as she seeks her ninth career flyweight title defense.
Shevchenko does have a three-inch reach advantage, but Weili should be the quicker fighter and the more voluminous striker, averaging 5.4 strikes landed per minute – compared to 4.1 for Shevchenko – despite the same career-margin (+1.4) per minute.
However, despite a lesser career control rate (74% vs. 67% in favor of Zhang) I do think Shevchenko has the wrestling and grappling edge in this matchup, completing 60% of her career takedown attempts, compared to 46% for Zhang, who lost a title bout on bottom in the same arena at UFC 268, after Rose Namajunas landed and held a fifth round takedown.
Both women are elite in all areas of MMA. Still, either have had mental lapses during the championship runs – particularly when forced to grapple defensively, and I expect Shevchenko to get the better of those minutes on Saturday.
If Zhang were younger, I would consider picking her in this fight – I do think that Shevchenko has started to decline, while Zhang has continued to improve in her recent bouts, if anything.
And I do expect a relatively close and competitive fight between these champions, which goes the full 25 minutes, and potentially ends in another split decision for Zhang at MSG.
I projected this fight to reach a decision about 77% of the time (-333 implied odds), and I would bet the distance or decision prop to -300.
I do show a slight edge on Shevchenko's moneyline (projected -138, listed -135), but might prefer to bet her to win by decision (projected +119, listed +150) down to +125.
Projection: Valentina Shevchenko (57.9%)
Sean's Pick:
Valentina Shevchenko wins by Decision (+150, 0.25u) at BallyBet; bet to +125
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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