Read our UFC 322 predictions for the Saturday, November 15 event live from Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The prelim card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 322 Moneyline Projections
UFC 322 Prop Projections
UFC 322 Moneyline Projections
UFC 322 Prop Projections
Pat Sabatini vs. Jose Mariscal
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:30 p.m. ET
One of the most notable things about Jose "Chepe" Mariscal was the insane strength of schedule he faced before joining the UFC. While he didn't have the best record on the regional scene, five of his six career losses came against fellow UFC fighters.
He also holds a pair of wins against future UFC opponents: a unanimous decision over Youssef Zalal, and a split decision against Pat Sabatini.
That makes this fight a rematch more than seven years in the making, with both key rematch metrics favoring Mariscal. The previous winner tends to win again at a higher clip than the betting markets imply, and so does the younger fighter. Mariscal is about two years younger than Sabatini, which means he was both further from his prime when they first fought, and closer to it for the second meeting.
That should mean he's made the bigger improvements, and the tape on both men would certainly imply the same. Sabatini is an elite grappler, but he's continued to rely on that ability without showing much improvement in his striking. Mariscal is a Judo black belt with excellent grappling in his own right, but he's also developed a scrappy brawling style on the feet.
At worst, Mariscal's background should allow him to avoid submissions and work back to his feet if he's taken down. At best, he might spend some time in top position after hitting some throws of his own. If the grappling cancels out, this fight almost certainly favors Mariscal. Sabatini has been knocked out badly on two occasions in his last five fights. Mariscal hasn't been knocked down or out in the UFC, and has seven knockouts as a pro compared to just one for Sabatini.
I'd make Mariscal the slight favorite here, so I'd bet him down to even money. Since we're getting as high as +110 via Caesars, that's a decent edge for the slight underdog.
The Pick: Jose Mariscal +110 (Caesars)
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:15 p.m. ET
