On Saturday, the UFC returns to Doha, Qatar, for a 14-fight card, featuring a potential title eliminator in the lightweight division between No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan and No. 6-ranked Dan Hooker.
Check out the Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker Odds
| Tsarukyan Odds | -550 |
| Hooker Odds | +410 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105/-135) |
| Location | Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Doha, Qatar |
| Bout Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Qatar odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Qatar with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tsarukyan – a native of Georgia �� enters with a 9-2 promotional record, with his losses coming on short notice in his debut against Islam Makhachev in 2019, and in a controversial main event loss to Mateusz Gamrot in 2022 (18 of 25 media scorecards and 65% of fans had the bout for Tsarukyan).
He was supposed to rematch Makhachev for Lightweight gold at UFC 311 in January, but pulled out the day before the fight with a back injury. After serving as the backup fighter for Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira at UFC 317, Tsarukyan should secure another title shot with a win on Saturday.
Hooker – who hails from New Zealand – is one of the more popular non-champions on the UFC roster, competing for the promotion since 2014, and making his 23rd walk to the octagon on Saturday (14-8 record; three-fight winning streak).
He enters coming off a controversial split decision over Gamrot, who had the majority of media and fan support. He was supposed to face Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 in March, but withdrew with a hand injury, and he still may have to defeat Gaethje to earn a title shot, even if he gets through Tsarukyan as a big underdog.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Qatar Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these lightweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 3:45 p.m. ET (1:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday.
Here's my Tsarukyan vs. Hooker pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tsarukyan | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-3 | 24-12 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:36 | 10:13 |
| Height | 5'7" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/11/1996 | 2/13/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.79 | 5.03 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.84 | 4.72 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.25 | 0.73 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 34% |
| TD Def | 75% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 1.1 |
Arman Tsarukyan is the younger man (six-year age gap) in the matchup, and I generally find that younger athletes are undervalued in MMA bouts – particularly when that fighter is in their physical prime.
In contrast, the older fighter is post-peak (the average age at lightweight is 34). When there is at least a 6-year age gap between MMA fighters, the younger man has won 66.3% of the time at average odds of -113, or an implied probability of 53.2%, more than 13% above expectation.
Dan Hooker is the taller and longer fighter (5" taller, 4" reach advantage). Still, Tsarukyan has proven himself the more efficient distance striker – outlanding opponents by 2.2 strikes per minute at range, compared to a margin of 0.3 for Hooker, who is both slower and more hittable (53% vs. 51% striking defense) than his opponent.
Moreover, Tsarukyan is both the better and more proactive offensive wrestler and grappler – averaging 6.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance – compared to 1.0 for Hooker – while controlling 78% of positions on the mat or in the clinch, compared to 64% for Hooker; and that includes his short notice debut against Makhachev, where Tsarukyan lost the control time battle 6:07 to 1:46 (roughly 78% to 22%).
Hooker is adept at mixing in takedowns in high-paced striking wars, and he has solid first-layer takedown defense (78%). Still, he can get stuck on his back and held down by an effective wrestler and grappler like Tsarukyan, who offers underrated top pressure and ferocious ground-and-pound.
Tsarukyan is adept at blending his striking and wrestling, which creates opportunities for him to land big shots on the feet or to find openings for takedowns when his opponent maintains a high guard. And while he hasn't submitted an opponent at the UFC level, or recorded an official submission attempt – I do expect him to progress to dominant positions on the mat against Hooker – potentially full mount to body triangle – and to lock in a rear-naked choke to finish the fight.
Alternatively, look for Tsarukyan to snatch a front choke – either a guillotine or anaconda – in a scramble as Hooker tries to work his way back to his feet.
Ultimately, I make a finish around 70% of Tsarukyan's win condition – and he should be extra motivated to find one, considering the title shot at stake. Moreover, I find the market is overweight on his knockout prop, likely given his UFC results to date, relative to his grappling edge in this specific stylistic matchup.
Still, I don't think that Tsarukyan is as much of a "lock" as his moneyline price or my projection might suggest; he's been knocked out regionally and wobbled in separate UFC fights by Joel Alvarez and Charles Oliveira. Moreover, I question his gas tank in a high-paced war, after slowing down against both Gamrot (in a five-round fight) and Oliveira (in a three-round fight).
While Tsarukyan has obvious submission grappling upside, Hooker carries more power, and may have the better gas tank – both of which could prove crucial down the stretch in a five-round fight.
Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Pick, Prediction
I projected Arman Tsarukyan as an 88.7% favorite (-783 implied odds) in this matchup, and I show an edge on his moneyline, which you could consider utilizing as a parlay piece.
I also show a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance, setting that prop at -226, compared to listed odds of -220.
And I show a correlated value on Tsarukyan to win inside the distance or by finish, setting that prop at -164; bet Tsarukyan to finish the fight, up to -157, which is a 1% edge compared to my number.
Alternatively, place a Same Game Parlay (SGP), or an SGP ladder with Tsarukyan and the Under 3.5 Rounds (-106 at FanDuel), Under 2.5 Rounds (+135 at BallyBet), and/or Under 1.5 Rounds (+250 at BallyBet); given Hooker's potential cardio advantage, I'd expect Tsarukyan to finish in the first 15 minutes or not at all.
The majority of the projected edge on Tsarukyan's finish prop is tied to his submission line, which I set at +303, compared to odds as high as +360; bet Tsarukyan to secure his first UFC submission, down to +320.
Sean's Pick: SGP: Arman Tsarukyan & Under 1.5 Rounds (+250 at BallyBet) | Arman Tsarukyan & Under 2.5 Rounds (+135 at BallyBet) | Arman Tsarukyan & Under 3.5 Rounds (-106 at FanDuel ) | Arman Tsarukyan wins by Submission (+360 at FanDuel)
