One of the best stretches of UFC events in recent memory continues with UFC Qatar this Saturday. The card is headlined by fan-favorite Dan Hooker taking on Arman Tsarukyan, in the first fight for Tsarukyan since his planned title shot against Islam Makhachev fell through.
We've got a 14-fight cared with a special 10 a.m. ET start time, and the entire event airing on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Qatar odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Qatar Predictions & Luck Ratings
Arman Tsarukyan (-550) vs. Dan Hooker (+410)
Arman Tsarukyan has a compelling case that he's actually the best lightweight in the world. He's 9-2 in the UFC, with those two losses coming in a decision against Mateusz Gamrot that should've gone the other way, and a short-notice fight against former lightweight and now welterweight champion Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan is one of just two opponents to land a takedown on Makhachev in his 18-fight UFC career.
Not just a grappler, he's a well-rounded fighter with plenty of power on the feet, having scored three knockdowns without being dropped himself and outlanding his opponents more than 2-to-1 in significant strikes.
While Hooker is equally dangerous on the feet, he's also reckless, absorbing nearly as many strikes as he lands and suffering a few knockout losses. He's also no match for Tsarukyan's grappling, having been submitted in his own fight against Makhachev in less than half a round.
While there's not much value in laying -550 on the favorite, it's hard to see this one going against Makhachev. I'd say the books have this one about right.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Myktybek Orolbai (-238) vs. Jack Hermansson (+195)
I'm not normally one to lay north of -200 odds on UFC fights in general, especially early in the week. However, given the early movement towards Myktybek Orolbai, that line could easily eclipse -300 come fight night. As of yesterday, his lines throughout the market were around -200. Today, some books have already moved to -250 or longer.
That movement makes a lot of sense, particularly considering the career arc of Hermansson. In the last three years, he's gone 1-2 with two knockout losses and a decision victory. He's also 37 years old and dropping down to welterweight for the first time in his professional career, which is generally not a good sign.
That's for two reasons. One, losing weight typically doesn't get easier in your late 30s. Two, weight changes are often a last-ditch attempt from fighters to cover up skill or ability issues rather than fixing the holes in their game. In the case of Hermansson, the obvious hole is his chin/durability, which probably isn't fixable anyway.
Plus, Orolbai's only career loss is via split decision. While that split decision ultimately rewarded the correct fighter, it's still encouraging that nobody has beaten him clearly. I'm betting to win half a unit on DraftKings at -238, which is the best current line. Later in the week, I'll be looking to bet Orolbai's point spread and/or finish prop.
Verdict: Orolbai Undervalued
Bekzat Almakhan (-115) vs. Alexandre Topuria (-105)
I logged a bet on Almakhan in the Action App at -108 odds on Monday morning, and in between making that bet and starting this article, the line has already moved to -115. I expect that movement to continue, as Almakhan is one of my favorite prospects in the sport, while Alexandre Topuria is most notable for being Ilia's brother.
Almakhan made his UFC debut on short notice against former title challenger and second-best bantamweight in the world, Umar Nurmagomedov. He drastically outkicked his coverage in his debut, dropping Nurmagomedov in the first round before being grappled the rest of the fight. The fact that he was able to stay safe on the ground and get back to his feet on numerous occasions was as impressive as the knockdown, considering he was a UFC debutante fighting a member of the Nurmagomedov clan on short notice.
He followed that up with a one-minute knockout over Brad Katona, who had never previously been stopped in 18 pro fights.
Topuria made his UFC debut in February, winning a relatively competitive unanimous decision against a fighter who took the fight on a few days' notice. While he's a talented fighter, his last name is doing most of the work in keeping this line close.
As of this writing, Almakhan is as high as -130 at some books. FanDuel has the best current line at -130 odds, but get it before the odds moves further.
Verdict: Almakhan Undervalued
