The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
Week 5 features the season's first women's bout, two fights with wide lines, and three fairly close matchup. There should be something for everyone this time around.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 5 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 2, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 5 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 5 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 5 Odds & Best Bets
Strawweight: Shanelle Dyer (-166) vs. Carol Foro (+130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
The first bout of Week 5 is also the first women's fight on Season 9 of the Contender Series. Former flyweight PFL Europe fighter Shanelle Dyer has made the cut down to 115lbs for her shot at a spot on the UFC roster, and her size edge was immediately apparent at weigh -ns on Monday.
The 24-year-old striker is 6-0 as a pro, after going 8-3 as an amateur. Two of her amateur losses came against women currently on the UFC roster, with Ivana Petrovic and Shauna Bannon both finishing her with ground and pound. With four of her professional wins via knockout and a pro kickboxing match on her record, it's immediately apparent what her strength is.
That striking ability stands out even more on tape. She's faced relatively tough competition in French promotion Ares FC and PFL Europe, where even at a heavier weight class, she typically enjoyed a height and reach edge. She likes to kick at range, mixing in push kicks and leg kicks while circling out of her shorter opponents' range. When they finally get frustrated enough to rush forward, she counters with check hooks and straight right hands, while finishing most combinations with a kick to the body or head.
Her Muay Thai background is also apparent in the knees and elbows she sprinkles in at close range. They aren't Plan A, but they do provide one more problem for her opponents to deal with.
In the tape I saw, Dyer also built well throughout the fight, opening up with more strikes as her opponents tired. Of course, that was in fights where she was able to stay standing the entire fight. The big question tonight is what happens if she's forced to defensively grapple for extended stretches, especially after having cut an additional ten pounds of weight. None of her PFL opponents made much of an effort to take Dyer down, with the only grappling sequences featuring Dyer on top following trips or caught kicks.
However, that might not change against Carol Foro. The 8-1 Brazilian is a Karate black belt with a solid boxing base as well, and has finished six of her eight wins with strikes. Her level of competition has been roughly equivalent to Dyer's, with an appropriate ramp-up to more experienced opponents.
Foro made her pro boxing debut in 2019 but didn't have an MMA fight until August of 2023, meaning she's squeezed all nine of her pro fights into a period of roughly two years. While she has more pro fights than Dyer, Dyer's extensive amateur background means she's had considerably more cage time.
Still, Foro looked extremely composed in her last fight. She applies steady forward pressure and does a good job cutting off the cage rather than chasing her opponent. While her movement isn't quite as fast as Dyer's, she could corral her taller opponent into a corner if she's able to cut off escape angles efficiently.
Of course, that becomes a lot harder if her leg has been chewed up with kicks from Dyer, which is entirely possible given Foro's fairly wide Karate-Style stance. She'd be wise to stand with a lighter front leg in this fight, but that type of major shift in style isn't especially easy to execute.
While I'm a fan of the striking game from both women, Dyer's size, speed, and power stand out. I'm fine with laying the juice on her moneyline, but it would also make sense to build an SGP with the over 1.5 Rounds (or fight to start Round 2, or some other permutation). While a Dyer knockout wouldn't shock me, I suspect she'll have to build to a finish rather than put Foro away early with a single shot or combination.
Prediction: Dyer by decision
Billy's Bet: Shanelle Dyer -160 (ESPNBet)
Lightweight: Samuel Sanches (-125) vs. Chasen Blair (-105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
This is the second Contender Series opportunity for Chasen Blair, whom I correctly predicted would be finished in his initial attempt, though I got the method wrong.
In my initial write-up of Blair, I described the former UNC wrestler as a fairly standard boxer-wrestler who relied more on athleticism and the threat of takedowns to power his striking, more than technical aptitude.
That plan didn't work against Kody Steele, a well-regarded submission grappler who didn't fear the ground game of Blair, and is the more gifted natural athlete. Steele finished Blair in the second round with a body shot along the fence after swarming him with punches.
Since then, Blair returned to Cage Warriors, picking up a first-round submission over a 5-1 opponent before getting the return call to the Contender Series. Blair's grappling was dominant in that fight, though he got clipped a few times on the feet before getting it to the canvas.
Keeping things standing will thus be the key for Sanches. The 22-year-old Brazilian already has 10 pro wins to his name, with seven of those coming via knockout. His lone loss came via submission, which further paints the picture of this as a fairly binary matchup, though that was more than three years ago.
Sanches is a tall, skinny lightweight who opened his last bout with a pair of heavy calf kicks before dropping his opponent with two straight punches and finishing him on the ground. He reminds me of a young Edzon Barboza both in physique and fighting style, though from the limited available tape he doesn't throw as many flashy techniques.
His takedown defense also seemed solid, as even in his submission loss he was able to defend his opponents shot, and get a takedown of his own before his opponent submitted him from the bottom.
It's not much to go on, but Sanches being both younger, more experienced, and faster is enough for me in what's effectively a pick 'em fight. I also like the fight to end inside the distance or the under 1.5 rounds, as the binary nature of the fight makes a stoppage fairly likely for either man, depending on where the fight takes place.
Prediction: Sanches by knockout
Billy's Bets: Sanches +100 (Caesars)
Light Heavyweight: Felipe Franco (-500) vs. Freddy Vidal (+340)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
This is now the third scheduled opponent for undefeated Brazilian prospect Felipe Franco, with the most recent change happening with less than two week's notice. The 8-0, 24-year-old Franco is clearly who the UFC is trying to showcase in this bout.
Just one of Franco's eight pro wins came against a fighter with a prior MMA win, and that came against an opponent a week shy of his 44th birthday. That makes it hard to draw any conclusions about Franco, even if he had available fight tape, which, unfortunately, he doesn't.
All I could find on Franco was a pair of his older regional fights in Brazil, when he was still fighting at heavyweight. The quality of opposition and the time since those fights make it hard to have any meaningful takeaways.
It does appear that Franco wants to grapple, as he initiated takedowns fairly early in both fights, and lists himself as a BJJ black belt and Judo Brown belt. Outside of that, all I know is that he shares his name with a well-known Brazilian bodybuilder-turned-politician, and resembles one himself (a bodybuilder that is).
Freddy Vidal is 3-0 as a pro MMA fighter, an activity he began last October. The 31-year-old high school gym teacher/wrestling coach was briefly a D1 wrestler at Long Island University, and trains with the Serra/Longo camp(s) in Long Island.
The only tape I was able to find on him was from one of his five amateur fights, where he nearly got armbarred in the first minute before grinding his opponent out with ground and pound.
Franco is clearly the A side here, but I'm not willing to lay -500 on a fighter who has never beaten an opponent with a pro win, so I'm going to pass. If I had to bet this one, I might take a sprinkle on Franco via submission, given his background and Vidal's close call in an amateur fight, but that's relatively flimsy reasoning.
Prediction: Franco by submission
Billy's Bet: Pass
Featherweight: Lerryan Douglas (-720) vs. Cam Teague (+450)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Cam Teague is also making his second trip to the DWCS cage this week, after being knocked out by Kevin Vallejos in his first attempt. I noted Teague's relatively weak strength of schedule (outside a win over UFC vet Austin Lingo) and wild brawling style as potential issues for Teague, as opponents he is unable to physically overwhelm in a firefight are likely to use superior technique to get the better of him.
Since we last saw him, Teague has gone 2-0 against opponents with roughly .500 records, plus picked up a boxing win. He's also continued to train at his home gym in Alabama, where he's one of just four listed pro fighters. That means it's fairly unlikely he's made any substantial technical improvements since getting starched by Vallejos in half a round last year.
He gets another tough matchup with LFA featherweight champion Lerryan Douglas this time around. While Douglas has an unimpressive 12-5 pro record, he's picked up four straight knockout victories and fought very tough competition — including UFC featherweight Chepe Mariscal — along the way.
Training out of Cub Swanson's Bloodline Combat Sports in California, which features UFC-level talent around Douglas' weight class, Douglas is a much more technical striker. He quickly claims the center of the cage, works behind a solid jab and leg kick, then explodes with a flurry of punches when he senses an opening.
His last two fights were also scheduled for five rounds, and he appeared to be pacing himself en route to a pair of Round 2 finishes. In this three-round tryout, where impressive performances are more valuable than winning safely, I'm expecting his foot to be on the gas immediately.
Douglas is -105 to win in Round 1, but the fight to end in Round 1 is almost the same price at -115, so I'm willing to pay the extra ten cents in case Tegaue pulls off a miracle — but I fully expect Douglas to pick up the quick stoppage here.
Prediction: Douglas by Knockout
Billy's Bet: Winning Round: Round 1 -115 (DraftKings)
Heavyweight: Anthony Guarascio (-166) vs. Steven Asplund (+130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
I did a double-take when I saw the name Anthony Guarascio listed as a heavyweight on this week's DWCS card, since a fighter by the same name once fought my teammate to a no contest in a middleweight amateur fight more than a decade ago.
Turns out, it's the same fighter, with Guarascio taking more than eight years off after that fight and reinventing himself as a heavyweight following a move to Florida. He finished out his amateur career in 2023 with a 2-2 MMA record, but a 4-0 record across boxing and kickboxing matches, with all but one win coming via finish due to strikes.
Now he's 3-0 with one no contest as a pro, with his longest fight lasting just 92 seconds. That was his most recent bout, a CFFC title match against DWCS vet Bailey Schoenfelder. That fight was a huge step up for Guarascio, as none of his prior opponents had more than one pro win.
The bulked-up version of Guarascio was slightly more disciplined on the feet than I anticipated, taking his time and initially working behind his jab before unleashing huge overhand rights, one of which eventually caught Schoenfelder. It was arguably an early stoppage, though, and it would've been interesting to see how Guarascio performed in an extended fight.
My bigger concern is that he doesn't possess a true heavyweight frame. While his added muscle clearly gives him the power to put heavyweights out, he weighed in at just 233 lbs for this fight, well within the range that a cut to light heavyweight would be possible. Schoenfelder was just 220 lbs for their fight. While that's not really an issue on the feet, where lighter fighters typically have a speed edge, it could be bad news for Guarascio if he's stuck on bottom against an opponent who outweighs him by 30 lbs.
Replacement opponent Steven Asplund checked in at 261 lbs for their bout. That's after once weighing north of 500 lbs, before starting MMA as a way to lose weight. The 5-1 Minnesotan is nicknamed "Concrete" thanks to his day job, where he pours concrete for his father's company.
Asplund is an awkward striker who punches from weird angles and mixes in unusual techniques for fighters his size, like push kicks to the face and spinning hook kicks. Like Guarascio, he'll mix in the occasional wild right hand, but he's not completely dependent on big swings to generate offense.
He also puts out more volume than Guarascio, even deep into fights that have made it into the third round. On the negative side, he stands very upright and pulls his head straight backwards when jabbed. That's a recipe for disaster if and when the quicker Guarascio unleashes one of his big overhand rights.
I also didn't see any offensive grappling from Asplund in his recent fights, though he showed solid skill and tons of heart in surviving four minutes of bottom position before coming back to pick up a knockout victory in his last fight.
This feels like an extremely binary fight, where the more explosive Guarascio has an opportunity to land big early, but probably won't have the gas in the tank to keep pressing if he doesn't find an early knockout.
Guarascio's Round 1 Prop is just +120, which isn't quite enough for me, so I'm waiting to make a live bet on Asplund. We might not be able to wait for the end of Round 1, so be ready to fire early in case Guarascio lands big but doesn't put Asplund away in the first minute or two. Alternatively, Asplund parlayed with some version of the over makes sense as a prefight bet.
Prediction: Asplund by TKO
Billy's Bet: Asplund Live
