Read our UFC 323 predictions for the Saturday, December 6 event live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelim card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 323 Moneyline Projections
UFC 323 Prop Projections
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
Since we didn't learn much about Iwo Baraniewski during his 20-second appearance on the Contender Series this season, I'm relying on the breakdown I did of his skills prior to his win over Mahamed Aly (no relation) more than his admittedly impressive Octagon debut.
While his obvious power is the most noteworthy thing about him, Baraniewski actually comes from a grappling background.
Prior to his MMA career, he was a national champion in both Judo and nogi submission grappling. He's also far more experienced as an MMA fighter than his 6-0 pro record indicates.
He was 17-3 as an amateur fighter, with three GAMMA (Global Association of Mixed Martial Arts) tournament victories. Confusingly, while those bouts count as amateur contests on fighters' official records, professionals with limited experience are also allowed to compete.
In Barniewski's case, two of his GAMMA wins came after his pro debut, so he's won eight in a row since turning pro in 2023.
Regardless, that's considerably more total combat sports experience than Ibo Aslan, who is 14-3 as a pro with no listed amateur experience.
He's a fairly one-dimensional power puncher with all 14 of his victories coming via knockout. He also beat just one fighter with a winning record before joining the UFC, and his two wins for the promotion came against fighters no longer in the organization, one of whom may have even been throwing the fight.
Against even slightly tougher competition like Billy Elekana and Ion Cutelaba, he's fallen flat, and I'd consider Baraniewski as much closer to those fighters in skill than the men that Aslan has defeated.
For that reason, I'm comfortable laying the juice on Baraniewski at FanDuel.
The Pick: Iwo Baraniewski -186 (FanDuel)
Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
