Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott Odds
| Cejudo Odds | +210 |
| Talbott Odds | -258 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250/+190) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
I'm intrigued by the UFC's matchmaking in this fight, with Payton Talbott taking on Henry Cejudo. Talbott was one of the more hyped prospects in the sport before he dropped a decision to Raoni Barcelos, who outwrestled Talbott throughout the fight. Talbott rebounded with a win, but is now matched up with former Olympic wrestling and UFC champion Henry Cejudo — who will be retiring (again) following the fight.
Here's my Cejudo vs. Talbott pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Cejudo | Talbott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:34 | 10:16 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 64" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 2/9/1987 | 9/9/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.82 | 6.05 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.46 | 3.26 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.84 | 0.24 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 25% |
| TD Def | 76% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Since his debut in the UFC, Payton Talbott has been one of my favorite fighters to watch. He has a unique style, sniping on the feet and dropping opponents with shots that don't appear to be thrown hard, but nevertheless hurt opponents thanks to his elite timing and precision. He's also a creative grappler, with my favorite highlight being his use of a back flip as takedown defense on the Contender Series.
Beyond that, Talbott is one of the most unique personalities in the UFC, defying stereotypes and making unique short films on his YouTube page. All of which makes him easy to root for in a sport filled with plenty of carbon copy personalities.
The UFC hasn't made things easy on him, though. After being taken down eight times and controlled for more than nine minutes by Barcelos in his first career loss, he then faced fellow prospect Felipe Lima, who was undefeated at the time and had taken down each of his previous UFC opponents.
The plan for Lima was clearly to exploit the grappling weakness that Barcelos exposed, attempting 15 takedowns on Talbott. Only three of those were successful, and he spent less than a minute per takedown on the ground.
Talbott's improvements were both technical and physical. He was noticeably bigger and stronger heading into the Lima fight. On top of that, he changed striking tactics, spending most of the fight moving forward while still looking to counter, rather than backing up.
That's an important tactical switch against wrestlers. The vast majority of wrestlers want/need to be moving forward to land takedowns, since it's extremely difficult to shoot while backing up. He also clearly spent some time in the wrestling room and utilized Gramby rolls, switches, and other wrestling techniques to return to his feet.
All of those changes will be important against Cejudo, who is probably the best pure wrestler to ever grace the Octagon, but is also undersized for the division. Talbott has six inches of height and reach on Cejudo, and he'll need to maintain range and move forward. That is much easier said than done, since taller fighters typically do their best work backing up.
Of course, all of that is operating under the assumption that Cejudo has anything left in the tank. It's been more than five years since "Triple C" won a fight, and he has given up more takedowns than he landed since returning from his first "retirement."
Granted, two of those three fights were against champions Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili, who are also elite grapplers. However, going zero for three on takedowns against Song Yadong was more concerning, especially since Yadong is a bigger, more powerful striker like Talbott.
Cejudo spent much of that fight attempting to establish his boxing before hunting takedowns, a theoretically sound strategy that will be even harder to implement against Talbott than it was against Yadong, since Talbott is faster and has better footwork. While Cejudo landed some leg kicks, those will be hard to come by if Talbott can fight moving forward.
Song figured that out throughout the fight, and eventually out-landed Cejudo both overall and specifically with leg kicks.
The biggest factor in this fight, though, is Cejudo's commitment level. He's already declared this his retirement fight, and has been more focused on his podcast and real estate investments than fighting in recent years. Against a young and ever-improving fighter like Talbott, that's not ideal.
Cejudo vs. Talbott Pick, Prediction
While I'd be fine laying the juice on Talbott's moneyline at some of the better prices in the market, I think we can do better.
His point spread line on DraftKings is -3.5 points at -110 odds, and his odds to win the fight via finish are +250. While I'm not exceptionally confident that Talbott can be the first man to finish Cejudo since2016, I believe it's more likely than the +250 odds imply — and at worst I expect him to win this fight clearly enough to cover the spread.
I'm betting 0.55 units to win half of a unit on Talbott's spread, plus another quarter unit on him to pick up the finish, all via DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Talbott -3.5 -110 (.55u) | By Finish +250 (.25u)
