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UFC 323 Predictions, Odds, Picks, Previews for Every Fight (December 6)

UFC 323 Predictions, Odds, Picks, Previews for Every Fight (December 6) article feature image
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Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images. Pictured: Merab Dvalshvili.

Check out my UFC 323 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Below, I look at the latest UFC 323 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.

Let's break it down.

UFC 323 Predictions

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 323 odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 3223odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC 323 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code.

UFC 323 Moneyline Projections

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC 323 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Picks
Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli
Ibo Aslan vs. Iwo Baraniewski
Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos

Featherweight BoutOdds
 Muhammad Naimov+200
 Mairon Santos-245
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-230/+175

Projection: Mairon Santos (68.7%)

Mairon Santos missed weight on Friday, hitting the scales 1.5 lbs above the Featherweight allowance of 146 lbs; he was fined 20% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.

While I don't project value on either side of the pre-fight moneyline, I do show an edge on the fight to reach a decision, setting that line at -257 (72% implied) compared to odds nearer to -186 (65% implied); bet the distance or decision prop up to -233 (70% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projection.

Moreover, I show a correlated edge on Naimov to win by decision, setting those odds at +343, compared to listed odds as high as +490.

Still, I prefer Santos as the winner of this matchup; I have never been high on Naimov's skillset – he's grappling-reliant, and Santos is both the more explosive and younger athlete (six years), with a clear striking edge and a 2" reach advantage, and he recently moved camps to Team Fighting Nerds.

My prop projection for Santos by decision aligns with the betting market, and I don't project actionable value on that winning method wager. I'd rather incorporate Naimov's decision equity into the distance prop, notably because Santos's weight miss could cause him to fade in the back half of this fight.

Bets

  • Fight Goes to Decision (-185, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -233

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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli

Middleweight BoutOdds
Mansur Abdul-Malik-1300
Antonio Trocoli+700
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds+160/-210

Projection: Mansur Abdul-Malik (89.4%)

The unbeaten Mansur Abdul-Malik is the most significant moneyline favorite on Saturday's card, and he will close north of -1000 for the third consecutive UFC bout. Still, he was expected to finish each of those two most recent opponents – Cody Brundage and Nick Klein – in Round 1, at odds of -110 and -135, respectively, yet both bouts cleared the Over 1.5 rounds, following some relatively suspicious betting activity on the totals, which matched a surprisingly tepid start from Abdul-Malik.

With the increased spotlight on the promotion following the recent scandal, I'd expect a more straightforward performance from Mansur on Saturday. However, you aren't getting a discount on his Round 1 probability (currently -125).

I align with the market on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected -251, listed 250). I would either bet Mansur to win by Round 1 KO/TKO (+160 at Fanatics) to even money or pass on this matchup altogether, as he continues to build a highlight reel before facing ranked opposition.

Bets

  • Mansur Abul-Malik wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+160, 0.2u) at Fanatics; bet to +100

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Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Iwo Baraniewski-192
Ibo Aslan+160
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds+150/-195

Projection: Iwo Baraniewski (65.4%)

Iwo Baraniewski will make his UFC debut as a relatively comfortable favorite against Ibo Aslan, following a quick knockout win on Contender Series, where he closed as high as +230 against Mahamed Aly.

Aslan is the bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach advantage). He has nearly three times Baraniewski's professional experience, but the Polish fighter has an extensive 20-fight amateur career, where he proved he's more than just a first-round finisher. He's the more well-rounded fighter than Aslan. He likely has the better gas tank, too – Ibo has shown cardio concerns, never won a decision in MMA, and seemed wholly disinterested in his last fight against Billy Elekana.

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline. Still, I do show an edge on the Over 1.5 Rounds (+160) and the fight to reach a decision (projected +360, listed +430) with correlated value on Baraniewski to win by decision (projected +665, listed +850); consider placing those bets down to +150, +400, and +725, respectively.

Bets

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (+160, 0.2u) at FanDuel; bet to +150
  • Fight Goes to Decision (+430, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
  • Iwo Baraniewski wins by decision (+880, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +725

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Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner

Lightweight BoutOdds
Edson Barboza+270
Jalin Turner-340
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds+100/-130

Projection: Jalin Turner (80.3%)

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

Jalin Turner retired following his most recent loss to Ignacio Bahamondes – his fourth defeat in five fights -, but he's returning to the Octagon after leaving his gloves in the center of the cage.

Turner – who is enormous for the lightweight division – had no issue on the scales on Friday, and he is nearly a decade younger than his opponent, Edson Barboza, with a significant height and reach advantage (4" taller, 2" reach).

Turner is a faster starter – often hurting opponents early before fading in the back half of his fights – due in part to his challenging weight cut. Conversely, Barboza has repeatedly overcome early damage throughout his career, rallying against opponents as he did in his recent main event win over Sodiq Yusuff.

Despite Turner's explosiveness and Barboza's advanced age, I project an edge on both the Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) and the fight to go the distance decision (projected +211, listed +300) and for Turner to win by decision (projected +345, listed +650).

I also show an edge on Turner's moneyline (projected -408, listed -300) as a potential parlay piece from this fight; however, it's difficult to back a fighter at that price tag when their quick reversal on a retirement decision could be purely financially motivated.

Bets

  • Over 1.5 Rounds (+105, 0.2u) at BetWay; bet to -115
  • Fight Goes to Decision (+340, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +230
  • Jalin Turner wins by decision (+650, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +400

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Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira

Middleweight BoutOdds
Marvin Vettori-120
Brunno Ferreira+100
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-166/+130

Projection: Marvin Vettori (57.2%)

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Brunno Ferreira missed weight on Friday, hitting the scales 3 lbs above the middleweight allowance of 186 lbs; he was fined 20% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.

It's a surprising miss for Ferreira – who is small for the division (Vettori is 2" taller, with a 2" reach advantage). Moreover, this is a step up in competition for the Brazilian, against a former title challenger with more UFC bouts (17) than Ferreira has professional fights. While Vettori has taken more damage in their respective careers, Ferreira is the older athlete.

Vettori enters on a three-fight losing streak, off of flat performances against Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen. Both Vettori and Ferreira possess neutral strike differentials, but Vettori typically outgrapples his opposition (75% control rate), whereas Ferreira (44%) is often getting outgrappled, unless he locks up a submission.

I projected Vettori as a near -135 favorite in this fight and would bet him to -125. You might also find a better live price in-fight, considering Ferreira's weight miss.

Moreover, I project this bout to reach a decision more than 60% of the time (projected -166), and I'd bet the distance or decision prop to -150.

Bets

  • Marvin Vettori (-115, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -125
  • Fight Goes to Decision (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -150
  • Marvin Vettori Live after Round 1

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Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov

Lightweight BoutOdds
Fares Ziam-142
Nazim Sadykhov+120
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds-215/+165

Projection: Fares Ziam (67.4%)

Nazim Sadykhov is a popular public underdog selection this week; fans and bettors in my sample are backing him to win this fight around 53% of the time, compared to implied odds closer to 46%.

Ziam is a bigger athlete (3" taller, 6" reach advantage), which should prove crucial at distance, but he's also the younger man. He has shown noticeable improvements during his UFC run, leveling up his grappling abilities.

He's the far more effective distance striker and minute winner than Sadykhov – outlanding opponents by more than two strikes per minute at distance. In contrast, Sadykhov gets outlanded by 2.6 strikes per minute. Sadkyhov has earned several finishes in fights where he was trailing on minutes or behind on the scorecards, including victori es over Nikolas Motta, Ismael Bonfim, and Evan Elder.

In fact, Sadykhov has lost the first round in four of his five UFC bouts, and the one he won (over Ismael Bonfim), he was doubled up on volume but swung two of the three scorecards with what proved to be a fight-ending cut.

Sadykhov is the more durable and robust athlete, and he could hurt and put Ziam away if he walks forward; still, I favor the Frenchman on minutes over Sadykhov's moments; bet Ziam up to -190 (projected -206).

Furthermore, I show a slight edge on Ziam to win by KO/TKO (projected +575, listed +800), but I'd give him below-average power and Sadykhov above-average durability relative to the 155-pound division; save that prop for round-robin tickets.

Bets

  • Fares Ziam (-135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -190)

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Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva

Flyweight BoutOdds
Maycee Barber-198
Karine Silva+164
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-260/+195

Projection: Maycee Barber (66%)

Maycee Barber made weight without issue on Friday, following her weight miss (and subsequent fight-day seizure) before her last scheduled bout against Erin Blanchfield.

Barber is the younger athlete by 4.5 years, runs at a tremendous pace, and should have a clear cardio advantage over Karine Silva, a fast starter who tends to fade if she cannot secure an early takedown and submission.

Barber makes for an excellent live bet after Round 1, but I would also target her odds to win in Rounds 2 (+1300) or 3 (+1600) pre-fight; she excels at winning wars of attrition against her opponents, and the cardio dynamic here could snowball into a late finish.

Barber should have a striking advantage at distance (+0.25 to -0.25 differential per minute), but she will begin bullying Silva in the clinch and up against the fence as her opponent tires. She will impose exactly the type of relentless damage from the top that you want to see when betting a fighter to win in the late rounds.

Bets

  • Mayce Barber wins in Round 2 (+1300, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +1000
  • Maycee Barber wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to +1000
  • Maycee Barber Live after Round 1
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Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan

Lightweight BoutOdds
Terrance McKinney-102
Chris Duncan-118
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds+270/-375

Projection: Chris Duncan (54.7%)

This fight is perfect matchmaking in the lightweight division between one of the most entertaining glass cannons on the roster – Terrance McKinney – and a chinny but technical opponent in Chris Duncan, who has won his past three fights as an underdog (at odds of +205, +300, and +150, respectively).

McKinney's success should be frontloaded – as it is in all of his fights – and I'm not surprised to see his pre-fight odds drop from an opening number of +165 down to even money after Friday's weigh-ins; the best price point on Duncan will likely come live, sometime during or after Round 1.

McKinney has a two-inch reach advantage, clearly hits like a truck when he's fresh (owns the Lightweight record for fastest knockout), but he's also a skilled wrestler who can land takedowns, progress to the back, and hunt for a choke. He should have had a severe speed advantage over Duncan early.

Still, McKinney's explosive style seemingly gasses him out after four minutes in every fight – he only has one career win outside of Round 1 – and when he begins to tire, he begins to take damage like a punching bag.

I would have bet McKinney at +130 earlier in the week, but I will pass at this price point.

Depending upon which side of the fight you prefer, you could place a Same Game Parlay (SGP) and bet on McKinney with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+140 at DraftKings) or place an SGP with Duncan and Over 0.5 Rounds (+125) while waiting for the live opportunity on Duncan.

Bets

  • SGP: Terrance McKinney & Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +125
  • Chris Duncan Live after Round 1
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Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres

Lightweight BoutOdds
Grant Dawson-250
Manuel Torres+205
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds+105/-135

Projection: Grant Dawson (68.4%)

Manuel "El Loco" Torres is an extremely dangerous and chaotic fighter, making him a fun but volatile stylistic matchup for any opponent, let alone a dominant control grappler like Grant Dawson (91% vs. 49% control rate; 68% vs. 12% fight time spent in control positions).

Torres has one split win; otherwise, each of his professional fights has ended in the first round. He's extremely violent but also reckless. Dawson doesn't necessarily have a good chin; his two career losses are by quick round 1 knockouts, and King Green has below-average power for a lightweight.

Still, Dawson is extremely well-trained, and unless he gets clipped again early, I expect him to proactively grapple (attempting 12 takedowns per 5 minutes at distance; 40% accuracy), find the back, and land some vicious ground-and-pound.

I show an edge on the fight to go Over 1.5 Rounds (+106) and to reach a decision (projected +310, listed +330), and I believe that equity is tied to Dawson winning by decision or finding an attritional finish against a rarely-extended opponent.

As a result, while you could bet the Over and distance or decision prop straight, or take Dawson to win by decision (projected +357, listed +450), I'd prefer a Same-Game Parlay with Dawson and Over 1.5 Rounds (+175) in addition to betting him to finish in Round 2 (+510) or Round 3 (+800).

Additionally, you can live bet on Dawson after Round 1, depending on the flow of the fight.

Bets

  • SGP: Grant Dawson & Over 1.5 Rounds (+175, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +150
  • Grant Dawson wins in Round 2 (+510, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +400
  • Grant Dawson wins in Round 3 (+800, 0.05u) at BallyBet; bet to +650
  • Grant Dawson Live after Round 1
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Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Jan Blachowicz-122
Bogdan Guskov+102
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds+114/-145

Projection: Jan Blahcowicz (53%) 

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.

While Jan Blahowicz is a former champion and was recently competitive with Carlos Ulberg in March in London (76% of fans thought he won the fight over a likely future title contender), he's 42 years old and about to turn 43, and fighting an opponent a full decade his junior.

Bogdan Guskov should have a speed advantage, which should help him to overcome a 2" reach discrepancy. Guskov has never won a decision in his professional career. Still, Blahcowicz is incredibly durable and carries significant power of his own, which should be enough to make Guskov respect him and avoid blitzing in too aggressively.

Jan should have the grappling advantage in this matchup – and his submission prop is in play –  but he's unlikely to pursue more than one shot a round (1.19 per five minutes at distance) given his age. Unless he's able to knock Guskov down in one round and take him down in another, I think he gets outpointed across a 15-minute fight against a faster opponent who throws in combination more consistently.

I project value both on the fight to reach a decision (projected +135) and on Guskov to win by decision (projected +565).

Bets

  • Fight Goes to Decision (+156, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +135
  • Bogdan Guskov wins by decision (+750, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +600

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Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

Bantamweight BoutOdds
Henry Cejudo+205
Payton Talbott-250
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-260/+195

Projection: Payton Talbott (76.4%)

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward

Henry Cejudo enters his retirement fight on Saturday against rising prospect Payton Talbott, an opponent 11 years his junior with a half-foot advantage in both height and reach.

Cejudo has not won a bout since he first retired after UFC 249 during COVID, but he also hasn't had many opportunities to wrestle his recent opposition. In contrast, Talbott lost to Raoni Barcelos as a -1200 favorite, after ceding eight takedowns and 9:43 of control time in a three-round fight.

Cejudo needs to relentlessly wrestle and hold position to win this fight, but I don't see him getting a back take or holding that position against such a tall, long opponent; Barcelos spent the majority of the fight in that position.

Moreover, I thought Talbott showed improved defensive grappling in his win over Felipe Lima. He is continuing to improve his overall MMA Skillset as he progresses into his late twenties, whereas Cejudo has shown obvious signs of physical decline in his late thirties; he was on the verge of being finished in the late rounds of his recent fight against Song Yadong, before the fight-ending eye poke.

I make Talbott a near-325 favorite in this fight and see him as a potential parlay piece on this card (-250 at BetMGM). Alternatively, you can lay his point spread (-3.5 points, -110) up to -125, which covers his finish and dominant decision equity.

If Talbott does find the finish, I'd expect it via attritional damage to the body of Cejduo in rounds 2 (+950) or 3 (+1300); either of those props is a worthy longshot sprinkles.

Bets

  • Payton Talbott -3.5 Points (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -125

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Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

Flyweight BoutOdds
Brandon Moreno-135
Tatsuro Taira+114
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-315/+230

Projection: Tatsuro Taira (60%)

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

I have never been particularly high on Tatsuro Taira – and have typically bet against him in the UFC- but Brandon Moreno is a highly public underdog on Saturday's card; fans and bettors are backing him to win the fight more than 60% of the time on average, but he's remained a slight underdog since the line opened.

I get the argument for Moreno – he's a better striker and a more durable athlete than Taira, and has championship-level experience against superior competition.

Still, I've thought that Moreno has looked flatter in his recent performances – and significantly slower – than he was during his title run and trilogy against Deiveson Figueiredo, whereas Taira – who is six years younger- is continuing to improve, and may be catching Moreno at the correct point of their respective careers.

While it's possible that Moreno can outwrestle Taira – and ends up bullying the prospect from the opening bell – I do have to side with the Japanese prospect given my model projection, which rebalanced Taira to a 60% favorite, after factoring in the public favor for Moreno.

Bet Taira to -140, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.

Bets

  • Tatsuro Taira (-120, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -140
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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van

Flyweight BoutOdds
Alexandre Pantoja-230
Joshua Van+190
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds-260/+195

Projection: Alexandre Pantoja (65.3%)

For additional analysis of this matchup – including a full statistical breakdown – check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

I project a slight edge on Joshua Van in this fight, setting his moneyline odds at +188, compared to odds as high as +205 as of writing; consider betting his moneyline at +200 or better.

There is an 11-year age gap between these flyweights, which should benefit the younger man – even though this fight is the first five-round test of Van's career.

Pantoja has the reach advantage (2") in the pocket, but Van is the more voluminous puncher, outlanding opponents by two strikes per minute at distance.

We have yet to see an opponent take his back, but Van has seemingly shown improved takedown defense in each of his fights, and is continuing to improve at MMA at 24 years old.

If Van can defend the takedowns from the outset – or avoid getting his back taken and scramble back to his feet – I'd expect him to outwork Pantoja at range across a 25-minute fight, and to potentially find a stoppage in Rounds 3, 4, or 5 via attritional damage, in the odds range of +2400 to +2900.

As a result, whether you bet Van pre-fight or not, consider a live wager after Round 1, once you are better able to judge how takedown defense will hold up in this fight.

Bets

  • Joshua Van (+205, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +200
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 3 (+2400, 0.02u) at DraftKings; bet to +2000
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 4 (+2800, 0.02u) at Fanatics; bet to +2500
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 5 (+4000, 0.02u) at Fanatics; bet to +2500
  • Joshua Van Live after Round 1
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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

Bantamweight BoutOdds
Merab Dvalishvili-410
Petr Yan+320
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds-395/+280

Projection: Merab Dvalishvili (70%)

For additional analysis of Saturday's main event and bantamweight title bout – including a full statistical breakdown – check out my full fight preview (LINK).

In short, two variables have changed relative to the first matchup:

The first fight took place at the Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, a smaller venue that uses the APEX-sized 25-foot cage, rather than the standard 30-foot Octagon, which is 3% larger in square footage. The added room in the rematch should give Yan more space to evade Merab's forward pressure and create fewer opportunities for Dvalishvili to close the distance and complete takedowns.

Additionally, both fighters entered the first fight with a broken hand – and subsequently had surgeries to repair their injuries – but Yan seemed noticeably compromised both at the time and particularly in hindsight; he sparingly threw his right hand during the fight, whether standing in orthodox, or as a jab after switching to southpaw.

I projected Petr Yan as a 72% favorite (-223) in the first fight in 2023, and I make him +233 (30% implied) in the rematch. He opened +240 (29.4% implied) for the rematch after closing around -240 (70.6% implied) in the first matchup, and has climbed to as high as +340 (22.7% implied) as of writing.

As a result, I would bet the former champion, following the price adjustment, at around +255, a two percent edge compared to my projection.

I also project an edge for Yan to win by decision (projected +456, listed +600), which was the favored winning method (listed +110 to +135) when they last fought; sprinkle that prop alongside his moneyline. And I would recommend betting Yan +9.5 points (-125) under the alternative point spreads at DraftKings.

Bets

  • Petr Yan (+340, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +255
  • Petr Yan wins by decision (+600, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +500
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Sean Zerillo's UFC 323 Picks & Predictions

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Moneyline Bets

  • Marvin Vettori (-115, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -125
  • Fares Ziam (-135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -150)
  • Tatsuro Taira (-120, 0.25u) at Fanatics; bet to -140
  • Joshua Van (+205, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +200
  • Petr Yan (+340, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to +255

Prop Bets and Totals

  • Naimov/Santos, Fight Goes to Decision (-185, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -233
  • Mansur Abul-Malik wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+160, 0.2u) at Fanatics; bet to +100
  • Aslan/Baraniewski, Over 1.5 Rounds (+160, 0.2u) at FanDuel; bet to +150
  • Aslan/Baraniewski, Fight Goes to Decision (+430, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
  • Iwo Baraniewski wins by decision (+880, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +725
  • Turner/Barboza, Over 1.5 Rounds (+105, 0.2u) at BetWay; bet to -115
  • Turner/Barboza, Fight Goes to Decision (+340, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +230
  • Jalin Turner wins by decision (+650, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +400
  • Mayce Barber wins in Round 2 (+1300, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +1000
  • Maycee Barber wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to +1000
  • Vettori/Ferreira, Fight Goes to Decision (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -150
  • Grant Dawson wins in Round 2 (+510, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +400
  • Grant Dawson wins in Round 3 (+800, 0.05u) at BallyBet; bet to +650
  • Guskov/Blahociwcz, Fight Goes to Decision (+156, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +135
  • Bogdan Guskov wins by decision (+750, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +600
  • Payton Talbott -3.5 Points (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -125
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 3 (+2400, 0.02u) at DraftKings; bet to +2000
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 4 (+2800, 0.02u) at Fanatics; bet to +2500
  • Joshua Van wins in Round 5 (+4000, 0.02u) at Fanatics; bet to +2500
  • Petr Yan wins by decision (+600, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +500

Parlays

  • SGP: Terrance McKinney & Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +125
  • SGP: Grant Dawson & Over 1.5 Rounds (+175, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +150

Live Bets

  • Marvin Vettori Live after Round 1
  • Maycee Barber Live after Round 1
  • Chris Duncan Live after Round 1
  • Grant Dawson Live after Round 1
  • Joshua Van Live after Round 1

Author Profile
About the Author

Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.

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