Check out the Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Dawson vs. Torres pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Dawson
Torres
Record
23-2-1
16-3
Avg. Fight Time
11:21
2:30
Height
5'10"
5'10"
Weight (pounds)
155 lbs.
155 lbs.
Reach (inches)
72"
73"
Stance
Switch
Switch
Date of birth
2/20/1994
3/25/1995
Sig Strikes Per Min
3.20
7.87
SS Accuracy
52%
60%
SS Absorbed Per Min
2.11
4.20
SS Defense
44%
52%
Take Down Avg
3.87
2.00
TD Acc
40%
66%
TD Def
57%
88%
Submission Avg
1.1
1.0
Dawson vs. Torres Pick, Prediction
Manuel "El Loco" Torres is an extremely dangerous and chaotic fighter, making him a fun but volatile stylistic matchup for any opponent, let alone a dominant control grappler like Grant Dawson (91% vs. 49% control rate; 68% vs. 12% fight time spent in control positions).
Torres has one split win; otherwise, each of his professional fights has ended in the first round. He's extremely violent but also reckless. Dawson doesn't necessarily have a good chin; his two career losses are by quick round 1 knockouts, and King Green has below-average power for a lightweight.
Still, Dawson is extremely well-trained, and unless he gets clipped again early, I expect him to proactively grapple (attempting 12 takedowns per 5 minutes at distance; 40% accuracy), find the back, and land some vicious ground-and-pound.
I show an edge on the fight to go Over 1.5 Rounds (+106) and to reach a decision (projected +310, listed +330), and I believe that equity is tied to Dawson winning by decision or finding an attritional finish against a rarely-extended opponent.
As a result, while you could bet the Over and distance or decision prop straight, or take Dawson to win by decision (projected +357, listed +450), I'd prefer a Same-Game Parlay with Dawson and Over 1.5 Rounds (+175) in addition to betting him to finish in Round 2 (+510) or Round 3 (+800).
Additionally, you can live bet on Dawson after Round 1, depending on the flow of the fight
Projection: Grant Dawson (68.4%)
Sean's Best Bets:
SGP: Grant Dawson & Over 1.5 Rounds (+175, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +150
Grant Dawson wins in Round 2 (+510, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to +400
Grant Dawson wins in Round 3 (+800, 0.05u) at BallyBet; bet to +650
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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