Check out the Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Naimov vs. Santos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Naimov
Santos
Record
13-3-0
17-1-0
Avg. Fight Time
11:25
12:10
Height
5'9"
5'7"
Weight (pounds)
145 lbs.
145 lbs.
Reach (inches)
70"
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Date of birth
8/7/1994
6/10/2000
Sig Strikes Per Min
2.61
3.53
SS Accuracy
40%
46%
SS Absorbed Per Min
3.45
2.38
SS Defense
45%
66%
Take Down Avg
1.69
0.00
TD Acc
36%
0%
TD Def
67%
50%
Submission Avg
0.2
0.0
Naimov vs. Santos Pick, Prediction
Mairon Santos missed weight on Friday, hitting the scales 1.5 lbs above the Featherweight allowance of 146 lbs; he was fined 20% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.
While I don't project value on either side of the pre-fight moneyline, I do show an edge on the fight to reach a decision, setting that line at -257 (72% implied) compared to odds nearer to -186 (65% implied); bet the distance or decision prop up to -233 (70% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
Moreover, I show a correlated edge on Naimov to win by decision, setting those odds at +343, compared to listed odds as high as +490.
Still, I prefer Santos as the winner of this matchup; I have never been high on Naimov's skillset – he's grappling-reliant, and Santos is both the more explosive and younger athlete (six years), with a clear striking edge and a 2" reach advantage, and he recently moved camps to team Fighting Nerds.
My prop projection for Santos by decision aligns with the betting market, and I don't project actionable value on that winning method wager.
I'd rather incorporate Naimov's decision equity into the distance prop, notably because Santos's weight miss could cause him to fade in the back half of this fight.
Projection: Mairon Santos (68.7%)
Sean's Pick:
Fight Goes to Decision (-185, o.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -233
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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