Check out the Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my McKinney vs. Duncan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
McKinney
Duncan
Record
17-7-0
14-2-0
Avg. Fight Time
2:47
8:17
Height
5'10"
5'10"
Weight (pounds)
155 lbs.
155 lbs.
Reach (inches)
73"
71"
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
Date of birth
9/15/1994
5/10/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min
5.78
4.64
SS Accuracy
56%
44%
SS Absorbed Per Min
2.58
4.53
SS Defense
47%
51%
Take Down Avg
3.59
3.17
TD Acc
40%
42%
TD Def
77%
50%
Submission Avg
2.2
0.5
McKinney vs. Duncan Pick, Prediction
This fight is perfect matchmaking in the lightweight division between one of the most entertaining glass cannons on the roster — Terrance McKinney — and a chinny but technical opponent in Chris Duncan, who has won his past three fights as an underdog (at odds of +205, +300, and +150, respectively).
McKinney's success should be frontloaded — as it is in all of his fights — and I'm not surprised to see his pre-fight odds drop from an opening number of +165 down to even money after Friday's weigh-ins; the best price point on Duncan will likely come live, sometime during or after Round 1.
McKinney has a two-inch reach advantage, clearly hits like a truck when he's fresh (owns the Lightweight record for fastest knockout), but he's also a skilled wrestler who can land takedowns, progress to the back, and hunt for a choke. He should have had a severe speed advantage over Duncan early.
Still, McKinney's explosive style seemingly gasses him out after four minutes in every fight — he only has one career win outside of Round 1 — and when he begins to tire, he begins to take damage like a punching bag.
I would have bet McKinney at +130 earlier in the week, but I will pass at this price point.
Depending upon which side of the fight you prefer, you could place a Same Game Parlay (SGP) and bet on McKinney with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+140 at DraftKings) or place an SGP with Duncan and Over 0.5 Rounds (+125) while waiting for the live opportunity on Duncan.
Projection: Chris Duncan (54.7%)
Sean's SGP Picks:
Terrance McKinney & Under 1.5 Rounds (+140 — DraftKings)
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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