Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van Odds
| Pantoja Odds | -238 |
| Van Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-238/+230) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
With Alexandre Pantoja thoroughly clearing out the old guard at flyweight, a new wave of contenders is now getting their crack at challenging for the title. The next in line is Joshua Van, a prodigious talent with a 17-2 record in four years as a pro, with nine of those fights coming in the UFC. He's already picked up four wins in the last 365 days, but is a considerable underdog in his attempt at a fifth.
Here's my Pantoja vs. Van pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pantoja | Van | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-5 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:37 | 13:46 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/16/1990 | 10/10/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.36 | 8.86 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.88 | 6.36 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.80 | 0.85 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 63% |
| TD Def | 69% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0 |
Josh Van has had a fast rise to the top of the sport, accelerated in part by how thoroughly Alexandre Pantoja has dominated the top flyweight contenders. When Van was making his pro debut in October of 2021, Pantoja was 8-3 in the UFC and 2405 as a pro fighter.
To an extent that makes any analysis of past Van tape somewhat hard to trust. He's making rapid improvements on a fight-by-fight basis, building up experience in the cage as he goes. He rebounded from his lone UFC loss in 2024 with a five-fight winning streak, culminating in a split decision win over former title challenger Brandon Royval.
In some ways, that showed Van at his best. Royval was content to keep things on the feet, where both men traded strikes at a high volume. Trying to beat Van in a fast-paced striking match turned out to be a mistake, as Van landed a knockdown on Royval while piling up more than 200 significant strikes.
Van's 8.86 significant strikes per minute is the highest in UFC history, and he's both accurate and powerful with his hands. His boxing-based approach also helps him stay on his feet, as he's not giving up takedown opportunities by picking up his feet for kicks.
Whether that's enough to deter the flyweight division's best takedown artist is another story, though. Pantoja has landed at least three takedowns in each of his five title fights, while Van has been taken down at least once by the last three opponents who attempted any.
What matters in this fight isn't so much whether or not Van gets taken down, but how much Pantoja can do with the takedowns he lands. Pantoja is an elite back taker with consecutive RNC finishes and is able to maintain top position extremely well, especially for a lighter fighter. Typically, smaller fighters have an easier time scrambling back to their feet after being taken down, but Pantoja has largely been able to finish rounds in dominant positions thanks to both his top pressure and his back-take threats in scrambles.
In March, Josh Van took on the undefeated Rei Tsuruya and was taken down four times (on 21 attempts) but controlled for less than four total minutes on the ground. Tsuruya was a junior Olympian wrestler, though he isn't at Pantoja's level in terms of positional control following takedowns — particularly with the de-emphasis on mat control in freestyle wrestling compared to folkstyle. The way Van defended and recovered from takedowns gives us a hint as to how he'll handle those situations against Pantoja. He prioritizes getting butterfly hooks from the bottom in order to elevate his opponents and create space to get up.
Many fighters these days prefer to turtle and attempt wrestling-style sit-outs or stand-ups. That provides far more back take opportunities than Van's jiu-jitsu inspired escapes. The drawback is that an experienced BJJ fighter like Pantoja could use those opportunities to pass Van's guard, putting him in better positions to do damage.
We've also never seen Van in a five round fight, so it will be interesting to see how well his cardio holds up. He's such a fluid striker that he'll probably hold up well while the fight stays on the feet, but if forced to repeatedly escape back to his feet it will wear on his gas tank. Pantoja also appears tired late in his fights, but continues to win the championship rounds in the majority of his fights.
Pantoja vs. Van Pick, Prediction
The way I see this fight playing out is Van having moments of success on his feet, but Pantoja changing levels and putting him on his back anytime he starts to really open up with extended striking combinations. I expect Van to be able to scramble back to his feet in the early rounds, before eventually accepting bottom position as the fight wears on and Pantoja continues to force the issue.
My favorite angle on this fight is Pantoja to land over 3.5 takedowns, which is -115 odds at DraftKings. Pantoja has never been finished, and Van is more of an attritional finisher than a one-punch knockout artist, so the worst-case scenario for this prop still gives Pantoja a few rounds to work.
On top of that, I'm taking a sprinkle on Pantoja's Round 4 and Round 5 props, at +1100 and +1600, also on DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Pantoja Over 3.5 takedowns -115 (.575u) | Pantoja Round 4 +1100 (.1u) | Pantoja Round 5 +1600 (.1u) (All DraftKings)
