Check out the Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Abdul-Malik vs. Trocoli pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Abdul-Malik
Trocoli
Record
8-0-1
12-5-0 (1 NC)
Avg. Fight Time
7:40
5:56
Height
6'2"
6'5"
Weight (pounds)
185 lbs.
185 lbs.
Reach (inches)
80"
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Date of birth
10/7/1997
12/6/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min
4.27
1.29
SS Accuracy
48%
50%
SS Absorbed Per Min
3.49
5.79
SS Defense
51%
23%
Take Down Avg
0.49
0.84
TD Acc
33%
11%
TD Def
82%
50%
Submission Avg
0.0
0.8
Abdul-Malik vs. Trocoli Pick, Prediction
The unbeaten Mansur Abdul-Malik is the most significant moneyline favorite on Saturday's card, and he will close north of -1000 for the third consecutive UFC bout.
Still, he was expected to finish each of those two most recent opponents — Cody Brundage and Nick Klein — in Round 1, at odds of -110 and -135, respectively, yet both bouts cleared the Over 1.5 rounds, following some relatively suspicious betting activity on the totals, which matched a surprisingly tepid start from Abdul-Malik.
With the increased spotlight on the promotion following the recent scandal, I'd expect a more straightforward performance from Mansur on Saturday.
However, you aren't getting a discount on his Round 1 probability (currently -125).
I align with the market on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected -251, listed 250).
I would either bet on Mansur to win by Round 1 KO/TKO at even money or pass on this matchup altogether, as he continues to build a highlight reel before facing ranked opposition.
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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