Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira Odds
| Moreno Odds | +102 |
| Taira Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-345/+250) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Brandon Moreno could very well be the second-best flyweight in the world, but has lost three times (including on the Ultimate Fighter) to the champion Alexandre Pantoja, he's relegated to gatekeeper status. He'll attempt to turn away another promising contender in Tatsuro Taira when they meet on the UFC 323 main card. The #5-ranked Taira is on the short list for a title fight, and could punch his ticket with a win over Moreno.
Here's my Moreno vs. Taira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Moreno | Taira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-8-2 | 17-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:08 | 11:05 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/7/1993 | 1/27/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.96 | 2.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 60% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.62 | 2.54 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.51 | 3.21 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 48% |
| TD Def | 64% | 45% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.7 |
Tatsuro Taira has raced to a 7-1 start in his UFC career, and is still just 25 years old. He's finished five of those wins, and his only loss was a split decision, albeit one that certainly had the correct winner. That fight came against Brandon Royval, who also beat Moreno via split decision in his previous fight.
Which goes to show how competitive the flyweight division is, with split decisions being passed back and forth between Royval, Moreno, Taira, and the champion Alexandre Pantoja. In part, the speed of the fighters makes it difficult for judges to tell who is landing effective strikes. Lighter fighters also tend to spend less time grounded following takedowns, so winning rounds via pure grappling is more difficult.
Grappling will almost certainly be the strategy Taira employs in this fight against Moreno. Four of his five finishes in the UFC have been via grappling, including one listed as a technical knockout due to a knee injury he caused with an unorthodox takedown on Alex Perez.
Watching Taira fight, one might assume he comes from an extensive jiu-jitsu or wrestling background, but he started his martial arts journey by training in MMA directly. However, grappling is clearly his A-game, attempting over six takedowns per 15 minutes and landing more than three of them. He's a dangerous submission hunter who was also able to control a high-level fighter like Royval on the ground for extended periods, racking up more than four minutes of ground control time in two rounds of that five-round fight.
The problem with his approach is that he spends most of his time in top control looking to advance position or lock up submissions, rather than doing damage. He attempted just five significant strikes on the ground against Royval, who landed 16 of 17 significant ground strikes on Taira despite losing the control battle by nearly ten minutes.
He's not an especially active striker while standing, either. He's continued to show improvement in that realm, dropping HyungSung Park in the first round of their bout, but still looks somewhat stiff and uncomfortable in extended striking sequences.
Which means his ability to take and keep Moreno down will be the determining factor of this fight. The former champion is a dangerous striker with excellent boxing, who can win minutes on the feet with volume even if he's not landing big shots on Taira.
Taira's best striking attacks are his kicks, which Moreno's forward pressure and active hands will likely shut down. The old adage is that you want to punch against a kicker, and not allow them to set their feet to throw kicks. Moreno's natural striking style accomplishes that well. Either way, I don't think anyone would give Taira much of a shot in a pure striking matchup with Moreno.
Moreno has been able to maintain his 64% takedown defense despite facing the best fighters and grapplers in the division for more than five years running. More impressively, he's also rarely been held down for extended periods. None of his last six opponents has racked up more than a minute of control time except for the current champion.
He's also never been submitted in his career, so even if Taira is able to establish top position it might not be enough to swing rounds his way. Taira's lack of damage on the ground means Moreno might only need one solid combination on the feet to steal back rounds that saw him hit the canvas.
Moreno vs. Taira Pick, Prediction
While all of the above analysis on Taira contains the massive caveat that at age 25, he is still improving rapidly. However, I'm not sure those improvements will come quickly enough to get through Moreno.
Moreno is somehow still just 31 himself, and continuing to add to his own game, while closer to his physical prime than Taira. He also has a difficult style for Taira to solve, as a much better minute winner who has never been finished.
For that reason, I'm riding with the slight-underdog while he's still listed at plus-money, with BetMGM having the best line at +105 odds.You can find the best current odds and instantly tail my Moreno bet by clicking the Playbook link here.
Billy's Pick: Brandon Moreno +105 (BetMGM)
