Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds
| Blachowicz Odds | -110 |
| Guskov Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+114/-145) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former light-heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz is winless since May of 2022 and now at 41 years of age, it’s fair to question whether he still has the skills to compete against the division’s best. His opponent on Saturday, Bogdan Guskov, will look to make his mark by earning the most significant win of his career. Oddsmakers seem to be baiting bettors into backing the more experienced man with the bigger name with pick 'em odds at UFC 323 – I am willing to take the bait.
Here's my Blachowicz vs. Guskov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Blachowicz | Guskov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-11-1 | 18-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:11 | 5:42 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/24/1983 | 9/12/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.44 | 4.17 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.03 | 3.30 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.03 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 0% |
| TD Def | 69% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.1 |
Guskov is riding a four-fight winning streak since dropping his short notice debut to Volkan Oezdemir, and he has looked impressive in running through the competition in front of him. Guskov is determined to control the center of the Octagon, and is willing to take a shot to give one back. Simply put, his right hand causes destruction and he is certainly confident in its effectiveness.
Guskov may just now be entering his fighting prime, and he isn’t a fighter looking to do just enough to win on the scorecards. His intentions are to finish his opponent in quick fashion and he has been successful in that quest in his four wins. However, this is a massive step up in competition from who he has been matched up with thus far in his career.
Guskov’s first win came against Zac Pauga, who is no longer with the UFC, and just two months later he earned a knockout victory over the fragile Ryan Spann. Guskov had a major size advantage over Billy Elekana at the beginning of 2025 when he submitted him in round two, and that may actually be his best win to date. Guskov’s most recent knockout win came over Nikita Krylov, a fighter who has simply not been the same since returning from a long layoff due to injury.
Maybe Guskov was just too inexperienced in his young career when he lost to Oezdemir in 2023, or maybe that was the only legitimatly UFC-level opponent he has ever had to face. Blachowicz offers a challenge that equals or exceeds that of Oezdemir, even if you think the Polish power may be a bit diminished at this point.
Blachowicz brings high-level experience, and has been in the cage with men considerably more dangerous than Guskov. Blachowicz’s most recent bout was against Carlos Ulberg, a fighter who will be competing for a championship in 2026. Blachowicz took the first round off Ulberg on all three scorecards, and throughout the entirety of the fight he landed 45% of his significant strikes to Ulberg’s 47%.
Blachowicz has not displayed any evidence that his durability is a concern as he ages. Guskov is going to be putting himself in harm’s way if he presses forward against the savvy veteran. Whether it is an abundance of low kicks that frustrates Guskov, or if it is a resurrection of the power that made Blachowicz famous, there are multiple ways for him to win this contest.
Blachowicz vs. Guskov Pick, Prediction
Lastly, it’s also worth noting Guskov has not seen a 3rd round since 2019. Blachowicz has proven countless times he can be effective in executing his gameplan for the duration of the fight, however long it lasts. With the grappling advantage also on the side of the favorite, I must side with the more well-rounded man at this price despite that considerable age gap.
The line has shifted throughout the week, but the best odds are now -110 via DraftKings. If you want to tail you can get the best current odds via Playbook below.
John's Pick: Jan Blachowicz -110 (DraftKings)
