Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Odds
| Dvalishvili Odds | -410 |
| Yan Odds | +320 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-395/+280) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan prediction for UFC 323 on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card for UFC 323, featuring a bantamweight title bout and rematch between current champion Merab Dvalishvili and former champion Petr Yan.
The pair faced off in a non-championship main event in March 2023, with Merab earning a unanimous 50-45 (x3) decision; the 9th victory on his current 14-fight winning streak. With another win over Yan on Saturday, Dvalishvili will become the first active UFC champion to defend their belt four times in one calendar year.
Yan – who enters on a three-fight win streak with an 11-4 promotional record – will hope to recapture UFC gold after losing the bantamweight belt to Merab's teammate and friend, Aljamain Sterling, via illegal knee at UFC 259, and via split decision at UFC 273.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 323 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these bantamweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET (9:30 p.m. PT) on Sunday morning.
Here's my Dvalishvili vs. Yan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dvalishvili | Yan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-4 | 19-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:08 | 17:08 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 1/10/1991 | 2/11/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.33 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.55 | 4.14 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 6.40 | 1.58 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 48% |
| TD Def | 82% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Dvalishvili put together arguably the most complete 25-minute performance in UFC history and dominated the stat sheet in their first meeting, the first five-round test of his professional career.
He out-landed Yan in every round, leading 202-87 on overall strikes and 147-75 on significant strikes, including a 129-66 margin at distance (91-41 on head strikes). Moreover, Merab attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns – nearly two per minute, and landed 11 of those attempts, controlling Yan for an average of 37 seconds per completed takedown.
Still, Merab didn't land a single ground strike or have any submission opportunities during the fight, and two key variables have changed relative to the first iteration of this matchup.
The first fight took place at the Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, a smaller venue that uses the APEX-sized 25-foot cage, rather than the standard 30-foot Octagon, which is 33% larger in square footage.
The added room in the rematch should give Yan more space to evade Merab's forward pressure and create fewer opportunities for Dvalishvili to close the distance and complete takedowns.
Additionally, both fighters entered the first fight with a broken hand – and subsequently had surgeries to repair their injuries – but Yan seemed noticeably compromised both at the time and particularly in hindsight; he sparingly threw his right hand during the fight, whether standing in orthodox, or as a jab after switching to southpaw.
Merab can overwhelm Yan – or any opponent – with takedown volume (9.7 attempts per five minutes at distance; 38% accuracy), and even when he doesn't land takedowns, he's able to drive opponents into the fence and suck time off the clock from controlling positions.
Still, Yan has rarely gotten controlled (11% of his grappling time) by UFC opposition, aside from back takes from Sterling, a position Merab doesn't look to get to.
If Yan – with a healthy hand in a full-sized cage – can turn this fight into more of a kickboxing match, he's the more voluminous (5.12 to 4.56 distance strikes landed per minute), efficient (+7.9% to -6.6% strike accuracy over expectation per Nate Latshaw). and dangerous striker (1% vs. 0.1% knockdown rate) judges may have to weigh his damage against Dvalishvili’s aggression and control time.
Yan needs to fight hands in the clinch and constantly circle back to the center of the Octagon to control range and dictate where the fight takes place.
I also noted that Saturday will mark Merab's fourth title defense (and fourth weight cut) in a calendar year, and he has looked a bit more sucked out and drained this week, relative to his recent title bouts.
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Pick, Prediction
I projected Petr Yan as a 72% favorite (-223) in the first fight in 2023, and I make him +233 (30% implied) in the rematch. He opened +240 (29.4% implied) for the rematch after closing around -240 (70.6% implied) in the first matchup, and has climbed to as high as +340 (22.7% implied) as of writing.
As a result, I would bet the former champion, following the price adjustment, down to around +255, at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
The first bout closed as low as -165, and as high as -200 to reach a decision; those odds have climbed to between -370 and -400 for Saturday's rematch. While I'm closer to betting the under, or the fight to end inside the distance (projected +275, listed +275) at current prices, I would pass on the total.
However, I project an edge for Yan to win by decision (projected +456, listed +600), which was the favored winning method (listed +110 to +135) when they last fought; sprinkle that prop alongside his moneyline.
Lastly, I would reccomend betting Yan +9.5 points (-125) under the alternative point spreads at DraftKings; he esssentially only needs to win one round on each card without getting finished (or without a 10-8 against him) in order to cover that line.
Sean's Picks: Petr Yan (+350 at FanDuel) | Petr Yan wins by decision (+600 at FanDuel) | Petr Yan +9.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings)
