2022 NBA Win Totals Tracker: Projected Wins for Every Team
Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons
- 2022 NBA win totals are set ahead of the season tip off on Tuesday, as bettors have had all summer to influence these numbers and get them to the right place.
- See where every team projects below.
2021-22 NBA Win Totals
Odds via PointsBet, updated October 19.
|Los Angeles Lakers||52.5|
|Golden State Warriors||47.5|
|Los Angeles Clippers||45.5|
|Portland Trail Blazers||44.5|
|New York Knicks||41.5|
|New Orleans Pelicans||38.5|
|San Antonio Spurs||28.5|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||23.5|
The NBA season is upon us, and there is no better way to judge the median outcome of your team than through win totals.
NBA win totals have seen some movement in the days leading up to the start of the season, with the Bulls, Thunder and Kings all getting a bump. The Warriors, Pelicans and Jazz all dipping one victory. The betting market has had all summer to move these numbers into shape, with the most possible information now available.
The same cast of characters leads the way — the Nets, Bucks, and Lakers are projected for 52 or more wins, while the Pistons, Thunder and Magic are expected to win fewer than 25 games.
If you’re new to the win totals world, here are a couple things to know:
- There will often be more win totals than actual games available to win, because bettors tend to favor overs. At PointsBet, they’re spot on, with 1,230 total wins available, but more teams juiced to the over. So the implied wins are higher.
- Most books, for a sport like the NBA with 82 games, will list every team with a fractional win total, so there won’t be any pushes.
- The team that wins the most games in the NBA will certainly go over 56.5 — the highest preseason total — but these are median projections. Winning 60-plus games is often an outlier, but someone will do it every year. Since 2000, at least one team has gone over 56 wins in every 82-game season
- The same goes for the worst teams in the league. A team will win fewer than 22.5 games, but it’s hard to set a win total a whole lot lower.
Brooklyn Nets (56.5)
The Nets enter the 2021-22 season healthy (well, assuming Kyrie Irving doesn’t retire) and with the highest win total in the season.
Brooklyn went 29-7 with James Harden active (a 66-win pace over an 82-game season) and is an elite regular season team thanks to its offensive firepower and consistency.
Milwaukee Bucks (54.5)
The defending champion Bucks are second at 54.5 regular season wins — two behind the Nets, but two ahead of the next closest teams. Giannis Antetokounmpo resigned with Milwaukee and appears to be with the team for the long haul.
Utah Jazz (52.5)
The team with the best record in the regular season last year at 52-20, the Jazz are expected to be right there again in the upcoming season with a projected win total of 52.5.
Los Angeles Lakers (52.5)
Last year was a weird one for the Lakers as LeBron James and Anthony Davis struggled through various injuries. Russell Westbrook is now a Laker, which may raise its floor during the regular season, especially when LeBron and Davis need to rest or miss extended stretches.
Phoenix Suns (51.5)
The NBA runners up have formed a great young nucleus around Devin Booker, but will Chris Paul repeat his performance from last season as he turns 37?
Philadelphia 76ers (50.5)
Philadelphia’s win total has dropped one win since PointsBet opened it in August — the news that Ben Simmons might never play for the 76ers again didn’t seem to impact the market all that much. If they do move Simmons, it’s likely they get usable pieces back, because Philly wants to contend now.
Simmons was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team a day ahead of the new season.
Dallas Mavericks (48.5)
Is this Luka Doncic’s MVP season? He’s the favorite at around +400 depending on the sportsbook. If you believe in his upside, maybe you’re better off betting the Mavs to win the Western Conference at +1400, or the NBA title at +3000.
Miami Heat (48.5)
The Heat added NBA champions from the last two seasons — a true point guard in Kyle Lowry, and three-and-D specialist P.J. Tucker, who was a key piece of the Bucks’ title run last season.
Golden State Warriors (47.5)
The Warriors actually dropped a win the week before the season, from 48.5 to 47.5.
It feels like years since Klay Thompson suited up for the Warriors, but he’s expected to return early this season after an Achilles injury during the 2019 NBA Finals. Last year’s No. 2 pick, James Wiseman, underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in April and should be back at some point during the regular season.
The Warriors might be the NBA team with the highest variance due to he uncertainty around those two key pieces, so maybe a bet at +1300 to win the NBA title at FanDuel, or points betting their win total, is the angle to take.
Denver Nuggets (47.5)
Don’t look now, but Nikola Jokic is getting in shape.
The Nuggets were mighty impressive in the shortened season, that ended in an MVP for Jokic. But they lost Jamal Murray to a torn ACL late in the season, which limits their upside, and it’s probably unrealistic to expect him to return before 2022.
Atlanta Hawks (46.5)
The Hawks broke through with a playoff series win for the first time with this young core, led by Trae Young. Atlanta plays in one of the worst divisions in the league — the Wizards, Magic and Hornets all have win totals under 37.5 — so the floor should remain pretty high with Young at the helm.
Boston Celtics (46.5)
The Celtics opened at 46.5, dropped one win, then moved back to 46.5 in early October.
While Boston did add Josh Richardson and Al Horford on the court, the biggest news this offseason was in the front office. Brad Stevens stepped down as head coach to become the president of basketball operations and hired Ime Udoka, a long-time Spurs assistant, to be the head coach. Udoka was a Nets assistant in 2020-21.
Los Angeles Clippers (45.5)
Kawhi Leonard re-upped with the Clippers — it was more likely than not he would, but you just never know — and L.A. will try to break through with this core.
The bad news? Leonard tore part of his ACL in the playoffs, and there’s no timetable for his return.
The good news? Paul George was brilliant in the postseason and carried the Clippers to the Western Conference Finals — the franchise’s first appearance — before falling to the Suns in six games.
Portland Trail Blazers (44.5)
Will Damian Lillard be a Blazer when the season begins? Now, it seems like he will be. He’s been rumored to just about everyone — the Knicks, 76ers, and Lakers were favored to land him in July.
Indiana Pacers (42.5)
The Pacers looked like a darkhorse contender in the East early in the season, but injuries derailed the campaign and they missed the playoffs at 34-38.
The betting market is expecting a slight improvement at 42.5 wins.
Chicago Bulls (41.5)
The Bulls have been quietly building for a few years, and made some noisier splashes this offseason. The week before the season, they’ve been bumped up a win from 41.5 to 42.5.
Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso have all been added to Chicago’s roster, and with another step forward from Zach LaVine, maybe this is finally a playoff team.
Memphis Grizzlies (41.5)
The Grizzlies basically just need to play .500 basketball to eclipse their win total, which seems doable with Ja Morant leading the way, right?
New York Knicks (41.5)
The Knicks finally broke through with a playoff appearance behind Julius Randle’s all-time season, and at least one of our experts thinks the regression talk has gone too far.
With 27 days now until the NBA season tips off, @HPbasketball told us he sees a big advantage for the New York Knicks in the Win Total market.
How's Matt betting NYK heading into the season?
— You Better You Bet (@YouBetterYouBet) September 22, 2021
New Orleans Pelicans (38.5)
The betting market is expecting a minor step forward from the Pelicans, with their line at 39.5. They went 31-41 last season, a 35-win pace in a full season.
Charlotte Hornets (37.5)
The Hornets might be an Eastern Conference playoff sleeper, and bettors bumped up their win total from 36.5 to 37.5 over the last two months at PointsBet.
Sacramento Kings (36.5)
The Kings play in a brutal division with the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Warriors, so it’s unrealistic to expect them to take a big step forward. The betting market feels similar, with their regular season wins set at 36.5, up one win from earlier in the offseason.
Toronto Raptors (35.5)
Much of the Raptors’ title core is gone, and they went just 27-45 last year. There are rumors many of the team’s key pieces could be on the move at some point this season, too, so it feels like the start of a rebuild in Toronto.
Minnesota Timberwolves (34.5)
The biggest news for this team this offseason has been off the court. The Timberwolves fired president Gersson Rosas, and Alex Rodriguez became a part owner. Their season win total puts them out of the playoff picture, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility they could compete for a play-in spot.
Washington Wizards (34.5)
Russell Westbrook helped will the Wizards to the postseason last year at 34-38, where they lost to the 76ers in the first round. Westbrook is now in Los Angeles.
The Wizards are the last of the “could make the playoffs” teams on this win totals list, as the next team, the Spurs, drop all the way to 28.5 wins.
San Antonio Spurs (28.5)
If you’re looking for improvement to San Antonio’s record next season, you may not get it. DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills and Rudy Gay, three reliable scorers, are all gone. It may get worse before it gets better. But this is the beginning of a new era for the Spurs, and probably a step in the right direction. Their win total at 28.5 reflects that.
Cleveland Cavaliers (27.5)
Still toiling away in the depths of the East, the Cavs have a sub-30 win total for the fourth-straight season.
Houston Rockets (27.5)
The Rockets entered last year with one of the league’s highest win totals, but losing James Harden and throwing themselves immediately into rebuild mode puts them in the bottom five this year. They went 17-55 last year, a 19- or 20-win pace in a full season,
Detroit Pistons (24.5)
The Pistons will be bad again, but they’ve got No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham to look forward to.
Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5)
The Thunder are stockpiling assets for the next decade, and might have every draft pick before too long, but this season will be another rough one. They did open tied for the fewest projected wins with 23.5, but have since moved up one.
Orlando Magic (22.5)
After a firesale at the deadline, it was clear the the rebuild in Orlando was underway. The Magic drafted Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner in the top 10, and hired a new coach. It’ll be a rough couple of years