76ers vs. Clippers Betting Odds Picks & Predictions: Can Shorthanded Philly Cover Double-Digits on the Road?
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Tobias Harris #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a dominant — and that’s an understatement — 29-point win over the Denver Nuggets on Friday, while the Philadelphia 76ers are missing their two best players, Joel Embiid (shoulder) and Ben Simmons (back).
That might explain why the Sixers are double-digit underdogs in today’s matchup with the Clippers. Can Tobias Harris lead Philly to cover on the road at Staples Center?
Our crew previews the matchups, betting trends and make their picks below.
76ers at Clippers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: -13.5
- Over/Under: 219.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ABC
Betting Trend to Know
The 76ers’ struggles on the road have been well documented — they are just 9-21 straight up in road games this season — and today’s road game against the Clippers doesn’t project to be a good situation either.
Against top-tier teams with a win percentage above .600, the Sixers are just 3-12-1 against the spread this season. A $100 bettor would have lost $913 betting on the 76ers in this spot over the course of the season, which is the worst mark in the NBA.
Chris Raybon: Are we sure Sixers +76 is a promotional line and not the real one?
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both expected to suit up for the Clippers, putting their super team in full effect. Not surprisingly, the Clips have been a cash cow for bettors when both Leonard and George are in the lineup:
- Leonard and George: 17-10 ATS (63.0%), +1.59 avg. cover margin
- Leonard, no George: 11-8 (57.9%), -0.45
- George, no Leonard: 3-7 (30.0%), +1.75
- No Leonard or George: 1-2 ATS (33.3%), -5.50
In the 631 minutes Kawhi and PG13 have shared the floor, the Clips have a +9.8 net rating. Once you factor in home-court advantage, the Clips would be a decent bet to cover the large spread even if Joel Embiid (shoulder) and Ben Simmons (back) were in the lineup for the Sixers.
Speaking of home court, the Sixers have made a bad habit of forgetting to bring their game along for the ride when they travel. The economy has been strong lately, but if we end up slipping back into another housing crisis, it will probably be due to gamblers betting the house on Philly on the road: The Sixers are a dismal 7-21-2 (25.0%) ATS on the road this season — this after an ugly 17-24 (41.5%) ATS mark as a visitor last season.
Over the last two seasons, the best time to fade the Sixers on the road is when they are underdogs by more than a possession, which has produced a 75.0% win rate, according to our Bet Labs data:
Opponents have covered the closing number by +2.75 points per game against Philly in these spots, and that grows to +3.25 if weighed against the opening number. This line opened at Clippers -12, and given the numbers, I think it has value up to -14.
PICK: Clippers -12.5
Matt Moore: An Absence of Value
Unless you’re using the MGM promotion of +76, I don’t think there’s great value here.
The Clippers are 10-7 as a double-digit favorite ATS this season, but the circumstances of this are too weird. The Sixers’ roster isn’t great outside of Embiid and Simmons, who are both hurt, but part of that has been how they’ve played around those two. Let me put it this way. If you had a random team that had Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, and Al Horford on it, I’m probably not putting them as 13.5-point dogs.
But the chemistry and fit have been bad this season, and Horford has looked like a shell of himself. Plus, the Clippers are fully healthy and they’re undefeated with a full squad this year. They were dominant in Friday’s win over the Nuggets, but that kind of recency bias is exactly what I get concerned with in these spots.
If I have to take a side, I’m taking Sixers +13.5 because as good as Simmons and Embiid are, they haven’t been so good this season as to make this a 13.5-point dog without them. If you want to go the other way and do believe this will be a comfortable Clippers win but don’t want to lay the points, you can go with the Sixers under of 103.5. But I think staying away is the play.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.