3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Collison Over/Under 5.5 Assists?
Trevor Ruszkowski — USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Darren Collison
The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a number of exploitable props on tonight’s slate. Here are three I like for games starting at 8, 8:30 and 9 p.m. ET.
Celtics F Marcus Morris Over 5.5 Rebounds (-125)
8 p.m. ET
Morris has averaged 5.8 rebounds in 30.7 minutes per game since the All-Star break, and pulled down six in just 24 minutes in his lone game against Milwaukee this season. That’s not surprising, considering that the Bucks lay claim to the league’s second-worst defensive rebounding rate (75.8%) and are tied for the third-worst offensive rebounding rate (20.1%). The Celtics will likely have to go big tonight due to numerous injuries in the backcourt, so Morris should get ample playing time.
Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard Over 26.5 Points (-120)
8:30 p.m. ET
This one goes against the grain, as it doesn’t stand out in the tool, but Lillard scored 29 and 31 points in two games against Dallas back in January, and I think he’s a good bet to do it again tonight. Dallas allows the fifth-most points per game in the league to opposing point guards (20.2), per Rotowire. Since the All-Star break, Lillard has averaged 28.2 points per game. He also averages 1.9 more points per game on the road (27.9) than at home (25.8) this season. Dame should be able to take rookie Dennis Smith Jr. to school. Smith, after all, ranks 93rd of 103 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus (-2.23).
Pacers G Darren Collison Over 5.5 Assists (-114)
9 p.m. ET
Collison projects to play more than 28 minutes in our NBA Models over at FantasyLabs. That’s good news for betting the over on this prop, as he’s topped 5.5 assists in 29 of 54 games (53.7%) in which he’s played at least 24 minutes this season. Denver allows the fourth-most assists per game in the league overall (25.0) and specifically to point guards (8.0), per Rotowire. Collison averaged 6.2 assists per game across 11 games in March, so this prop seems to be underweighting his recent play somewhat.