Three NBA Props for Sunday: Westbrook Over/Under 27 Points?
David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified five props with a perfect 10/10 Bet Quality, and 11 more with a 9/10. Here are the three that I think are most exploitable for games with start times of 6, 7 and 8 p.m. ET.
Celtics PF Al Horford Under 4.5 Assists (-114 at BetOnline)
6 p.m. ET
After averaging 5.1 assists per game before the All-Star break, Horford has dished only 3.8 per game in 12 games since. And despite being the Celtics’ second-leading assist man behind Kyrie Irving, Horford has been held under 4.5 assists in a higher percentage of games with Kyrie out (52% in 11 games) than with him playing (46% in 54 games). The Kings play at the third-slowest pace in the league, and sharp money has been betting against the Celtics.
Thunder PG Russell Westbrook Under 27 Points (-115 at Sportsbook.com)
7 p.m. ET
Recency bias wants you to bet the over on Russ: He’s scored 27 or more points in four of his past five games. On the season, however, he averages 25.4 points per game and was held to fewer than 27 points in two of three prior meetings with the Blazers this season. Only Westbrook’s Thunder allow fewer points per game to point guards this season than the Trail Blazers, per Rotowire.
Rockets C Clint Capela Under 14.5 Points (-115 at Bovada)
8 p.m. ET
Despite averaging 14.1 points per game this season, Capela has been held under 14.5 points in 41 of 67 games this season (61.1%). Per FantasyLabs’ Matchup tool, Capela’s primary defender on the Hawks, Dewayne Dedmon, allows a field goal percentage that is 10.1 percentage points fewer than what Capela shoots from the paint and 7.6 percentage points fewer than what Capela shoots from the restricted area. It’s also worth noting that Capela’s usage rate remains steady at 20% with or without Chris Paul, who is out with a hamstring injury.
Top photo: Thunder guard Russell Westbrook