3 NBA Props for Saturday: Holiday Over/Under 6.5 Assists?
After a multi-month slog replete with a bunch of resting players and tanking teams, the NBA Playoffs are here and we finally have what should be some good competitive games.
While we don’t have public bet percentages on player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of tickets and percentage of money on each game, we can find situations where the Vegas lines may be undervaluing a particular team, which can provide value on props for the players involved.
There are some significant discrepancies between public opinion and where the money is on Saturday’s slate, so I’ll analyze three props that may provide value:
- Markieff Morris over/under 13.5 points (@ TOR) — 5:30 p.m. ET
- Dwyane Wade over/under 11.5 points (@ PHI) — 8 p.m. ET
- Jrue Holiday over/under 6.5 assists (@ POR) — 10:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 3 p.m. ET Saturday. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Wizards F Markieff Morris Over 13.5 Points at Raptors (+110)
5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Wizards-Raptors sits atop Sports Insights’ Sharp Action Report for today’s games in terms of the difference between public money and tickets on the over. A little more than half the total betting tickets are on the over, but the amount of public money on the over is hovering at around 90%. And though tickets are split nearly 50/50 on the spread, more than 70% of the money is on Washington. If the books are undervaluing the Wizards, then the over on this Morris prop is a good place to take advantage. Morris has dropped in 14 or more points in 13 of his 25 games since the All-Star Break and scored 15 points in each of his past two games against Toronto.
Heat G Dwyane Wade Over 11.5 Points (-114 at BetOnline)
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
Wade scored 51 points in 71.8 minutes against the 76ers in three games as a member of the Heat this season. Even if he plays no more than his season average minutes per game with Miami of 22.2, that would still equate to 15.8 points, but it’s certainly possible Wade gets a few extra minutes because it’s playoff time. And both offenses in this game may be undervalued by the books, as tickets are split roughly 50/50 on the over/under (214), but the money on the over is pushing 90%. Wade averages 12.0 points per game as a member of the Heat.
Pelicans G Jrue Holiday Over 6.5 Assists at Portland (-114)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
About two-thirds of the public is on over 217.5 in this game, and tickets are split 50/50 at New Orleans +5, but roughly 80% of the money is on the over and 60% of the spread money is on New Orleans, indicating the public may be underestimating the Pelicans’ offense in this one. In the two games against Portland that backcourt mate Rajon Rondo played, Holiday dished exactly 6.5 assists in 37.1 minutes per game. And with Rondo healthy all April, Holiday still averaged 8.0 assists per game in six games. With this being the playoffs, Holiday should push for 40 minutes, giving him some breathing room on this prop even if Rondo steals some assist chances. That, plus the likelihood that New Orleans is undervalued in this spot, makes the over a solid bet here.
Pictured above: Jrue Holiday
Photo credit: Craig Mitchelldyer — USA TODAY Sports