After a multi-month slog replete with a bunch of resting players and tanking teams, the NBA Playoffs are here and we finally have what should be some good competitive games.
While we don’t have public bet percentages on player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of tickets and percentage of money on each game, we can find situations where the Vegas lines may be undervaluing a particular team, which can provide value on props for the players involved.
There are some significant discrepancies between public opinion and where the money is on Saturday’s slate, so I’ll analyze three props that may provide value:
- Markieff Morris over/under 13.5 points (@ TOR) — 5:30 p.m. ET
- Dwyane Wade over/under 11.5 points (@ PHI) — 8 p.m. ET
- Jrue Holiday over/under 6.5 assists (@ POR) — 10:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 3 p.m. ET Saturday. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Wizards F Markieff Morris Over 13.5 Points at Raptors (+110 at BetOnline)
5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Wizards-Raptors sits atop Sports Insights’ Sharp Action Report for today’s games in terms of the difference between public money and tickets on the over. A little more than half the total betting tickets are on the over, but the amount of public money on the over is hovering at around 90%. And though tickets are split nearly 50/50 on the spread, more than 70% of the money is on Washington. If the books are undervaluing the Wizards, then the over on this Morris prop is a good place to take advantage. Morris has dropped in 14 or more points in 13 of his 25 games since the All-Star Break and scored 15 points in each of his past two games against Toronto.