3 NBA Props for Sunday: Towns Over/Under 23 Points?
The nightcap of Day 2 of the NBA Playoffs features two Western Conference Matchups with some star power: Thunder-Jazz at 6:30 p.m. ET and Rockets-Timberwolves at 9 p.m. ET.
While we don’t have public bet percentages on player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of tickets and percentage of money on each game, we can find situations where the Vegas lines may be undervaluing a particular team, which can provide value on props for the players involved.
With that in mind, here are three props from TNT’s Sunday evening slate that could provide some value:
- Russell Westbrook over/under 10.5 rebounds (vs. UTA) — 6:30 p.m. ET
- Chris Paul over/under 4.5 rebounds (vs. MIN) — 9 p.m. ET
- Karl-Anthony Towns over 23 points (@ HOU) — 9 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5 p.m. ET Sunday, April 15. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Thunder PG Russell Westbrook Over 10.5 Rebounds vs. Jazz (-100)
6:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Nearly two-thirds of the betting tickets are on the Thunder, but the percentage of money on them is even higher, hovering in the low- to mid-70s as of this writing. That means the Thunder may be slightly undervalued and the Jazz may be slightly overvalued by the public in this spot. Utah is an excellent rebounding team, but it allows 2.0 more rebounds per game on the road (42.6) than at home (40.6). And if you like OKC in this spot, consider that Westbrook averaged 1.1 more rebounds per game in wins this season.
Westbrook might not be chasing rebounds for a record anymore, but he still averaged 11.7 rebounds per game in 23 games after the All-Star Break. And any minutes increase he sees because it’s the playoffs would only help; he averaged 11.6 rebounds per game in the postseason last year, up almost a full rebound per game from his regular-season average of 10.7. Westbrook snared 11 or more rebounds in 62.5% of his games after the All-Star break this season.
Rockets PG Chris Paul Over 4.5 Rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-125)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
The Rockets are favored by 10.5 points here, and if you simply like them to win, this prop looks attractive. While CP3 averaged only 4.5 rebounds per game this season in the eight losses he was a part of, he averaged 5.5 rebounds per game in the 50 wins he was out there for. And betting the over on this prop wouldn’t have failed once this season against Minnesota. Paul’s rebounding totals vs. the Wolves: 6, 8, 10, 8.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23 Points at Rockets (-114)
9 p.m. ET | TNT
In four games this season vs. the Rockets, Towns’ points-per-game average clocked in slightly above this prop at 23.8 — but that was in just 34.8 minutes per game. Towns has played 40-plus minutes 15 times already this season — we know Tom Thidbodeau has no issue whatsoever with running his starters into the ground — and played 42 in regulation in what was essentially a playoff game on the last day of the regular season against Denver. Then there’s the fact Timberwolves-Rockets has the highest over/under on the slate and also the highest amount of money on the over on the slate at just over 80% as of this writing.
Pictured above: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo credit: Brad Rempel — USA TODAY Sports