3 NBA Props for Thursday: Jamal Murray Over/Under 17.5 Points?

3 NBA Props for Thursday: Jamal Murray Over/Under 17.5 Points? article feature image
Credit:

Brad Rempel — USA TODAY

The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a bunch of exploitable NBA player props on tonight’s slate, including nine with a perfect 10-of-10 Bet Quality Rating. Here are three that stand out for games starting at 7 p.m., 8 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. ET.

 

Warriors F Kevin Durant Over 4.5 Assists at Pacers (-114)

7 p.m. ET

Durant has dished at least five dimes in 40 of 64 games (62.5%) this season. You would think the absence of Steph Curry (knee) and his unfair shooting ability would cut into Durant’s assist numbers — 41.7% of Curry’s 2s and 61.8% of his 3s have been assisted this season — but that hasn’t been the case. With Curry and Andre Iguodala (knee) off the floor, Durant has to take on more ball-handling responsibilities, and in six games without them both, Durant’s assist rate is 1.4 percentage points higher than with them playing, per the FantasyLabs NBA On/Off tool. That discrepancy grows to 1.8 if you look at all of the 595 minutes Durant spent on the floor without them. KD averages 5.4 assists this season and Labs projects him for 7.8 tonight. Bet Quality: 10/10.

Wizards C Marcin Gortat Under 8 Points at Cavaliers (-115)

8 p.m. ET | TNT

Gortat averages 8.5 points on 25.2 minutes for the season, but since the All-Star break he’s down to 7.7 points on 22.2 minutes. The Cavs can space the floor with bigs such as Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. and Jeff Green, which may force coach Scott Brooks to take Gortat off the floor. In fact, Gortat played only 14 minutes last game against Houston while the more small-ball friendly Mike Scott played 24. Gortat has also struggled on the road this season, averaging just 7.0 points on 46.0% shooting compared to 9.9 points on 57.7% shooting at home. Bet Quality: 10/10.

Nuggets G Jamal Murray Over 17.5 Points vs. Timberwolves (-114)

10:30 p.m. ET | TNT

While home-court advantage is generally overvalued in the betting markets at the team level, it can sometimes be undervalued at the player level, both in daily fantasy sports and the prop market — and Murray is a perfect example. He averages 17.9 points on 48.9% shooting this season and home, but 15.2 points on 40.8% shooting on the road. For his career, he shoots 5 percentage points better at home overall and 6.2 percentage points better from 3. Labs’ On/Off tool reveals that Murray benefits from the absence of Garry Harris (knee), increasing his usage rate by 1.7 percentage points when Harris is off the floor. Murray has also smashed against the Wolves this season, averaging 25.5 points and 46.7% shooting from downtown in two games. Bet Quality: 10/10.