The FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool analyzes every NBA player prop bet on the market each day and determines which ones are the most exploitable, and the Bet Quality ratings it assigns are an excellent starting point for narrowing down to the props you want to focus on. A 12-game slate awaits on the final day of the regular season — and it should be a good one. Amidst all the wanna-be process trusters cornering the tanking market, we still have eight games with playoff implications. That means that no matter which teams or players you like to get down on, there’s likely a prop you’ll like tonight. Here’s analysis on three props I see value in — two from games that start at 8 p.m. and one from a 10:30 p.m. ET tip.
Thunder C Steven Adams Under 13.5 Points vs. Memphis (-120 at Bovada)
8 p.m. ET
It’s not that I don’t think the grizzly vet Adams can run roughshod over younger dudes like Deyonta Davis and Ivan Rabb, who are merely stand-ins for actual NBA-level starters. It’s that Adams has scored 14 or more points just once in his last six games. And that Russell Westbrook wants his 16 rebounds and his triple-double, which means Adams could end up spending all game boxing out for Westbrook instead of grabbing rebounds of his own — the same scenario that unfolded last game in which Westbrook got 18 rebounds and Adams got only three — which results in fewer cheap points via tip-ins for Adams. And even if Adams were to improve on his 10.0 points per game in 32.4 minutes in April, Oklahoma City is more than a two-touchdown favorite against Memphis, so the blowout risk in this game is palpable. Bet Quality: 10/10. (P.S. the tool doesn’t like the over on Westbrook’s 15.5 rebounds, but I do. Westbrook needed 34 rebounds coming into last game and got 18. He’s going to be in full-on “we’re teammates but I’ll kill you if you get that rebound” mode until number 16 has been safely secured.)