3 NBA Props for Wednesday: Jokic Over/Under 11 Rebounds?
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The FantasyLabs NBA Player Props tool analyzes every NBA player prop bet on the market each day and determines which ones are the most exploitable, and the Bet Quality ratings it assigns are an excellent starting point for narrowing down to the props you want to focus on. A 12-game slate awaits on the final day of the regular season — and it should be a good one. Amidst all the wanna-be process trusters cornering the tanking market, we still have eight games with playoff implications. That means that no matter which teams or players you like to get down on, there’s likely a prop you’ll like tonight. Here’s analysis on three props I see value in — two from games that start at 8 p.m. and one from a 10:30 p.m. ET tip.
Thunder C Steven Adams Under 13.5 Points vs. Memphis (-120)
8 p.m. ET
It’s not that I don’t think the grizzly vet Adams can run roughshod over younger dudes like Deyonta Davis and Ivan Rabb, who are merely stand-ins for actual NBA-level starters. It’s that Adams has scored 14 or more points just once in his last six games. And that Russell Westbrook wants his 16 rebounds and his triple-double, which means Adams could end up spending all game boxing out for Westbrook instead of grabbing rebounds of his own — the same scenario that unfolded last game in which Westbrook got 18 rebounds and Adams got only three — which results in fewer cheap points via tip-ins for Adams. And even if Adams were to improve on his 10.0 points per game in 32.4 minutes in April, Oklahoma City is more than a two-touchdown favorite against Memphis, so the blowout risk in this game is palpable. Bet Quality: 10/10. (P.S. the tool doesn’t like the over on Westbrook’s 15.5 rebounds, but I do. Westbrook needed 34 rebounds coming into last game and got 18. He’s going to be in full-on “we’re teammates but I’ll kill you if you get that rebound” mode until number 16 has been safely secured.)
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic Over 11 Rebounds at Timberwolves (-114)
8 p.m. ET
If you’re ever going to bet the over on a prop this high, a do-or-die game for the conference’s final playoff seed is the situation to do it in. When these teams played six days ago, Jokic had 14 rebounds. He’s played 38 or more minutes in five of his past seven games and no fewer than 34 over that span, ripping down a ridiculous 13.7 boards per game during that stretch. In fact, if you bet the over on this prop in each of those games, you would be riding a 5-1-1 heater. Bet Quality: 9/10.
Trail Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic Over 9 Rebounds vs. Jazz (-115)
10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
This is another prop that’s too low for a game with playoff implications. Nurkic averaged 8.2 rebounds in 26.5 minutes per game before the All Star break. In 23 games since, the Bosnian behemoth has averaged 10.7 rebounds despite playing slightly fewer minutes per game (26.2). It’s not always easy to get boards over Rudy Gobert, but Nurkic’s average of 10.7 since the break matches Gobert’s season-long mark. Nurkic has grabbed double-digit rebounds in four games straight, and the over on this prop would have gone 14-9 (60.9%) since the break. Bet Quality: 8/10.
Pictured above: Nikola Jokic.
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing — USA TODAY Sports.