The Orlando Magic (15-10) and New York Knicks (17-7) will square off in the NBA Cup Semifinals on Saturday evening. Tipoff from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Knicks are 5.5-point favorites over the Magic on the spread (Knicks -5.5), with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. New York is a -205 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Orlando is +175 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Knicks vs Magic picks and my NBA Cup predictions for Saturday, December 13.
Knicks vs Magic Picks, Props, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs Magic Odds for NBA Cup Semifinals
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 224.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
Magic vs. Knicks NBA Cup Semifinals Preview
This battle of two potential Eastern Conference finalists brings a lot of drama to the table.
Jalen Brunson has been sensational in NBA Cup play, and the Knicks look like the Eastern Conference contender they’re supposed to be.
The Magic started the season in a tailspin, but since Desmond Bane hit a game-winning three-pointer a few weeks back, they’ve been sensational, with the 10th-best offense and 5th-best defense in the league — going 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS with a +5.9 ATS differential.
Orlando is without Franz Wagner and has struggled over the past three seasons without him, going 12-21 SU and 15-18 ATS, 10-11 ATS as a 'dog. But, the Magic won in impressive fashion against the Heat on Tuesday to reach the Vegas semifinals.
The big tactical factors in this game:
- Orlando ranks 1st in offensive rebound rate, but the Knicks are 5th in defensive rebound rate. Without second-chance points, there’s a good chance Orlando’s offense sputters.
- Both of these teams are surprisingly fast, ranking in the top-12 in transition rate both offensively and defensively.
- Jalen Brunson is an excellent pick-and-roll defender going up against an elite pick-and-roll scoring defense. That’s the same situation he was in vs. Miami, and he went off for 39 points in the Cup quarterfinals.
There’s a big edge for Orlando in this game when it comes to free throw creation.
The Magic are top-three in free throw rate, while the Knicks are middle of the pack defensively and low in free throw rate offensively.
The Knicks are just barely above league average in free throw defense, but Orlando is 7-3 ATS against above league-average free throw defenses; they compromise the opponent’s advantage in keeping the opponent off the line.
Orlando’s halfcourt offense struggles; they are still 21st in that category. Then again, the Magic eviscerated a Heat team that was top-five in that category going in. But still, this is a big edge for New York.
This is on neutral court in Vegas. I’d expect more Knicks fans for a variety of reasons, but not enough to give the Knicks a big edge.
My in-season model makes this line Knicks -2.7; my model with preseason priors makes it Knicks -4.9.
I have a lean toward the Knicks here at under two possessions. Favorites are 4-2 in the Vegas rounds of the tournament. However, Orlando’s recent play makes it only a lean.
I'm taking the over, which is an insane thing in tournament knockout play.
The under is 13-5 in tournament knockout play and 6-0 in the Vegas rounds of the tournament so far. The over/under margin is 15.7 points!
Yet, here I am, stupidly buying into the over. But, these two teams play fast; they’re top-12 on both sides of the ball in transition frequency per Synergy Sports.
Their defenses are good, but they both know they need to push pace against the opposing defense.
I peg this total all the way up at 232.8, giving us a big edge on the over.
The under has taken sharp money in our PRO tools system, predictably, but this opened at 223.5 and is up a point, so someone moved it up.
The game script is either that the Knicks offense gets going, the Magic offense keeps rolling, or the game is close enough that stopped possessions push this over.
Magic vs Knicks Betting Prediction
- Over 224.5 (-110)
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