Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets-Houston Rockets
- Spread: Rockets -5.5
- Over/Under: 216.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBA TV
The Rockets and Nuggets face off in Houston for their final meeting of the season on Thursday. Both teams have played well as of late with the playoffs looming, but the Rockets have a chance to win the season series vs the Nuggets at home.
Can Denver slow down James Harden and Co.? Our analysts discuss.
What's at Stake
The Warriors have a 0.5-game lead over the Nuggets for the top seed in the Western conference and Denver has a comfortable four-game lead over the Rockets for No. 2.
As Matt Moore wrote last week, the Nuggets have a strong chance to put even more distance between themselves and the scrappy Rockets tonight:
The Rockets lead 2-1 in the season series with the final meeting next week. If the Nuggets were to somehow win that (Houston has owned them the past three seasons), there’s a very good chance they also secure a tiebreaker based on conference record.
Also, with the Blazers nursing a major injury to Jusuf Nurkic, the Rockets are still very much in play for the No. 3 seed out West.
Betting Trends to Know
In the Rockets’ loss in Milwaukee, they shot 36.4% from the field, including 16-52 (30.8%) from 3-point range, while attempting fewer than 10 free throws as a team in consecutive games (25th team to shoot fewer than 10 FTA in consecutive games since 1973). This season, the Rockets have done a very good job at bouncing back after a poor shooting performance.
The Rockets have played 11 games this season directly after shooting below 40% from the field, Houston is 7-4 against the spread this season (including 5-1 ATS in its past six games) and 6-0 straight up and in this spot. — Evan Abrams
Bettors like the Rockets at home. More than 60% of spread tickets are on Houston -5.5 vs. Denver. Jame Harden & Co. have often disappointed the public this season going 21-33-3 (39%) ATS when receiving a majority of bets. — John Ewing
Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game
The biggest question for the Nuggets against the Rockets is defense. Here’s how the two offenses fared in the first three meetings this season:
Nov. 13: Rockets 122.5 ORtg, Nuggets 111.4 ORtg | Houston win
Jan. 7: Rockets 127.6 ORtg, Nuggets 115.3 ORtg | Houston win
Feb. 1: Rockets 122.5 ORtg, Nuggets 111.4 ORtg | Denver win
Even in the game the Nuggets won, the Rockets had no issues putting up points. In those three games, they ranked in the 84th, 92nd and 95th percentiles of offensive performances. It took a 99th percentile offensive performance — 154.5 points per 100 possessions (!!) — from Denver in the most recent meeting to get a victory.
In those games, Houston slowed things down in the halfcourt and eviscerated the Nuggets defense in that setting. Will that carry over into tonight's game?
In those meetings, the Rockets had an 80% eFG mark on wide open shots. They hit 55.3% of their wide open 3-pointers.
On “tight” shots — a defender 2-4 feet away — the Rockets posted a 61.4% eFG and hit 39.4% of their 3s. There’s plenty of reason to believe that won't continue.
As Matt will detail below, the Bucks provided an incredible blueprint on how to stifle the Rockets offense. In a nutshell, get the ball of the superstar's hands and make role players like PJ Tucker hit shots. Denver did that in one game, and Tucker and Gerald Green combined for 13 three-pointers on 21 attempts.
Further, the Nuggets don’t have the defenders on the level of what the Bucks have to throw at Harden. Sure Gary Harris is a good option, but their best might be Torrey Craig, who is a liability on the offensive end.
The Rockets will likely put up points anyway — they had a high 26.8% free throw rate in those three games this season — so will Denver try to win a shootout like it did in the last meeting? Or will the Nuggets focus on defense like the Bucks did?
I don’t have a strong lean on the game for those reasons, although I will leave you with a Bet Labs system match.
Late in the season, home favorites getting sharp money on the moneyline have historically been profitable bets. Those teams have produced a 9% Return on Investment (ROI) and have been at 15% just this year. The Rockets match that trend.
Moore: Follow the Leader, Denver
Here’s what I’m most interested in: Will Denver adopt the strategy that Milwaukee did in that game Tuesday? That’s the best we’ve seen anyone guard the Rockets.
Rockets fans will say it was an off shooting night, but vs. the Rockets you’re looking for the optimum result, and the optimum result is daring Eric Gordon and Tucker to beat you.
Denver doesn’t have the defenders to create quite the same level of resistance, but the simple tactic of playing behind Harden to prevent the step-back and force him to choose between the left-to-right corner pass or the floater is the right one:
Harden has been better at floaters this season than any one before; he’s largely unstoppable. But with Houston, it’s about forcing him to make tough choices. The Nuggets didn’t do that in their previous meetings, and they might not be able to do it tonight.
The other approach that has been suggested is to simply forgo defense and try and outscore the Rockets, but this seems like a fool’s gambit. Denver has an elite offense, but if you’re not trying to slow down Houston you’re playing into its game.
Additionally, Houston’s been a top-five defense the last few weeks and while I have questions about that sustainability, it’s not promising for a Denver defense that started the year off hot, fell off dramatically, then stabilized above 110 in defensive efficiency.
The Rockets have simply owned this matchup, and until the Nuggets are able to show that they have a gameplan to beat the Rockets, you have to take Houston and lay the points, especially against a two-possession spread.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
