Warriors-Rockets Betting Preview: Should Houston Really Be Favored?

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Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

• Spread: Rockets -3
• Over/Under: 218.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT

The Warriors travel to Houston to face the Rockets without Stephen Curry on Thursday night. Golden State hasn't been an underdog very often over the past couple seasons. Should you back the Warriors, or is there value on the Rockets against the spread? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

This will be the Warriors' third game in four days. Since 2005, teams playing their third game in four days have gone 429-583 (42.4%) straight-up, while teams on normal rest (two or fewer games in four days) have won 50.2% of their games.

Three-in-four situations set teams up for a "schedule loss," but it hasn't been particularly profitable to fade these teams as bettors.

Since 2005, teams like the Warriors playing a third game in four days have gone 482-522-11 (48%) against the spread. And in the past five seasons, these teams are 93-93-1 ATS.

Oddsmakers do a good job accounting for fatigue. — John Ewing

When the Rockets and Warriors have met with Mike D'Antoni or Steve Kerr at the helm of each respective team (including playoffs), the under is 21-10 (67.7%), going under the total by 7.2 points per game. It's gone 10-4 since the 2016-17 season, going under by 8.9 points per game. And when the total is 220 or lower, the under is 13-5, going under in the past six meetings in this spot.

The Rockets finished the 2017-18 regular season 14th in pace (98.10 possessions per 48 minutes); in the playoffs, they barely raised their pace to 98.13. So far this season they're 28th in pace at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes.

Under D’Antoni, the Rockets have had a much better ATS win percentage and return on investment for bettors when Houston is averaging fewer possessions per 48 minutes (in November or later), which is a bit surprising. — Evan Abrams

• Fewer than 100 Poss/48 min: 47-27-1 ATS (63.5%), +23.8% ROI, +3.1 ATS diff
• 100 or more Poss/48 min: 36-48-1 ATS (42.9%), -16% ROI, -0.7 ATS diff

Mears: Steph Is Still Undervalued ATS

A couple of days ago I highlighted how Stephen Curry was being undervalued in the betting market. Sportsbooks peg his value this season around three to four points, but remember that they aren't incentivized to nail a player's true value — they just want equal action on both sides.

The public ultimately has the say in Curry's ATS value. And I think the public has been wrong.

Take a look at the splits with and without Curry since Kevin Durant came to town in 2016.

• Steph on: 123.4 Offensive Rating, 59.4% eFG%, 101.8 pace
• Steph off: 106.9 Offensive Rating, 52.9% eFG%, 95.3 pace

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors were 17.6 points per 100 possessions (99th-percentile) better with Curry on the court vs. off in 2016-17. They were 13.0 points/100 better (96th-percentile) better with him on vs. off in 2017-18.

Yes, even with Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, Steph was MVP-like valuable. And that's translated to the betting market.

In the 37 regular-season games without Curry since Durant arrived, the Warriors have been poor without their star.

• Warriors ATS without Steph: 13-24 (35.1%)
• Under in games without Steph: 22-15 (59.5%)

Over the past two games without Steph, the Warriors have failed to cover and would have gone under in both had Monday's game against the Clippers not gone into overtime.

Based on our power ratings, we have these teams as exactly even on a neutral court without Curry playing. Of course, that factors in Curry's likely value to the spread based on what oddsmakers think, not necessarily his true value.

I would guess this line settles around Rockets -2.5, and if that's the case, I think there's value on them at that number.— Bryan Mears

Locky: Why I Lean Toward Houston ATS Tonight

There are some interesting things going on personnel-wise in this game. For Golden State, it’s all about what happens when Curry isn’t on the court, and what happens now that Green is supposedly back on it.

In both situations, it’s the offense that suffers.

Going back a couple seasons, Golden State’s offensive efficiency tumbles when Curry isn't out there, and even during the two long stretches last season, you could see the effects. The defense also struggled to close last season with Curry out, but considering that the whole team basically admitted they didn’t care about the end of the regular season, defensive lapses are understandable.

If Green plays — he isn't just returning from suspension, but also has a toe injury — he has a similar impact on the Warriors offense season, dragging it down when he’s out there but continuing to provide a lot of impact defensively.

The combination of lineups the Warriors will use in this game could actually create a lot of situations in which they have trouble scoring. Basically, when Durant isn't out there, the Warriors' ball movement of old needs to return in a big way to get easy baskets.

The unifying theme of Houston's past two games has been that when Chris Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela are healthy — even if the team plays basically no bench — the surrounding players aren’t relevant.

Let those three do their thing, and the others can fill the lanes.

Against Indiana, James Ennis was awful, and Gary Clark was pretty good. Against Denver, it was the exact opposite. It didn’t matter.

The Rockets are playing seven guys, but as long as there isn't an awful rest situation, as long as three of those guys are Paul, Harden and Capela, this team is fantastic — especially offensively.

If Carmelo Anthony isn't out there (he won't be), even better.

In the three games Curry missed the whole affair, you can see how the minutes distribution will be problematic. Quinn Cook has to play big minutes. Shaun Livingston’s return helps, but he hasn’t played all season and probably needs to be eased back in a little.

The shot distribution is problematic as well. Against the Clippers — the only competitive team of the three the Warriors have played over this stretch — Thompson and Durant took a combined 55 (!) shots in the Warriors' loss.

There just isn't a lot of scoring on the court in most of these lineups. If this current construction can’t beat the Clippers, will it fare that much better against a Houston team that has its Big 3 plus Eric Gordon back, and doesn’t have Carmelo?

I understand it's odd that the Warriors are an underdog in a game, but if you put in their efficiencies from these recent games up against the Rockets' recent efficiencies with everyone back, an underdog is exactly what Golden State should be.

I’d lean toward Houston at -3. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.