Warriors-Rockets Betting Preview: Should Houston Really Be Favored?


Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Klay Thompson and James Harden

Nov 15, 2018, 12:00 PM EST

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Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

  • Spread: Rockets -3
  • Over/Under: 218.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: TNT

>> All odds as of noon ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The Warriors travel to Houston to face the Rockets without Stephen Curry on Thursday night. Golden State hasn’t been an underdog very often over the past couple seasons. Should you back the Warriors, or is there value on the Rockets against the spread? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

This will be the Warriors’ third game in four days. Since 2005, teams playing their third game in four days have gone 429-583 (42.4%) straight-up, while teams on normal rest (two or fewer games in four days) have won 50.2% of their games.

Three-in-four situations set teams up for a “schedule loss,” but it hasn’t been particularly profitable to fade these teams as bettors.

Since 2005, teams like the Warriors playing a third game in four days have gone 482-522-11 (48%) against the spread. And in the past five seasons, these teams are 93-93-1 ATS.

Oddsmakers do a good job accounting for fatigue. John Ewing

When the Rockets and Warriors have met with Mike D’Antoni or Steve Kerr at the helm of each respective team (including playoffs), the under is 21-10 (67.7%), going under the total by 7.2 points per game. It’s gone 10-4 since the 2016-17 season, going under by 8.9 points per game. And when the total is 220 or lower, the under is 13-5, going under in the past six meetings in this spot.