Rockets-Raptors Betting Preview: Follow Historical Trends on Houston?

Betting Odds: Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors

• Spread: Raptors -3.5
• Over/Under: 228.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT

Kawhi Leonard vs. James Harden. Kyle Lowry vs. Chris Paul.

The stars are all out tonight in Toronto in this marquee showdown. Is there any value in tonight's spread or total? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The Rockets opened as 4.5-point underdogs. This is just the eighth regular-season game that Houston has been an underdog when both James Harden and Chris Paul are expected to play. The Rockets went 5-2 straight-up and against-the-spread (ATS) in the previous seven games. — John Ewing

The Raptors are coming off one of their worst shooting performances of the season, shooting 38.5% from the field in their loss against the Pistons.

Since 2005, teams with a win rate of 70% or higher that shot less than 40% from the field in their last game are just 165-198-5 (45.5%) ATS, and just 66-92-3 (41.8%) since 2013. — Evan Abrams

The Rockets have won five consecutive games straight-up, all by relatively small margins; their biggest win was just 11 points. The Rockets will now travel to Toronto on normal rest to face the Raptors to try and extend their streak.

Since 2005, teams that have traveled to Toronto on normal rest while on at least a five-game winning streak have had success ATS, going 19-9 straight-up (67.9%) and 17-9-2 (65.4%) ATS north of the border. — Abrams

Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game

If you take the year-long metrics for each team, this game shouldn't be anywhere close to Raptors -3.5, which suggests Toronto is about a point or less better on a neutral court. The Raps on the year have a +5.2 point differential (third-best in the NBA), while the Rockets are at +2.0 (11th).

And yet, the Raptors haven't quite looked at their full powers lately. They're just 2-2 over their last four, dropping games to the Magic and Pistons. What's been going on?

It could just be a minor blip — it's a long season after all — but the bench has been problematic. Last season, the Raps bench was perhaps the best in NBA history, easily ranking first in the league in efficiency. This year, they're down to 20th in the league.

It's been a bit rough lately; take the Portland game the other day as an example. In that win, the starters all posted positive plus-minus marks, with Marc Gasol and Pascal Siakam leading the way at +23 and +19, respectively. Those are incredible numbers, and if your starters are getting that type of lead against other starters, you're a really good team.

But the game was close, mostly because every bench member got outscored by double digits in their minutes. Norman Powell, Jeremy Lin, OG Anunoby and Pat McCaw all got significant minutes, and those guys are a far cry from last year's unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright and Jakob Poeltl.

The Marc Gasol trade seemed like a home run for the Raptors, but the bench argument is a fair one. It was already hurting, and they traded depth in Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright and C.J. Miles for the All-Star big man. It was still a good trade, and depth matters less in the playoffs (which is what this team is rightfully optimizing for), but it could hurt them in covering regular-season numbers.

With that said, tonight they'll face the most top-heavy team in the league in the Rockets, whose bench ranks literally last in efficiency. Houston's bench this season is shooting a league-low 40.4% from the field and 31.4% from 3-point land.

Thus, I'm not sure Toronto's current bench weakness will really be magnified in this particular affair. Gasol has been a nice addition for them, and that new starting lineup has blitzed opponents to the tune of a +36.9 point differential. They definitely have the firepower to hang with the Rockets, and they have the best combination of defenders in the league to throw at Harden and CP3.

So far this morning, the Raptors are getting 52% of the bets and 72% of the money, and yet the line has moved from Toronto -4.5 at open to -3 currently. There's value at that number as it sits now, but I would grab it early, as the money discrepancy will likely push it back up later. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.