Moore’s Guide to Betting a Loaded NBA All-Star 3-Point Contest

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Photo credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Buddy Hield

Feb 14, 2020, 06:00 PM EST
  • Matt Moore has all the info you'll need to break down what should be a thrilling three-point shootout.
  • Kings gunner Buddy Hield (+700) offers excellent value, but should you stick with last year's champ Joe Harris instead?

Twenty-seven shots.

That’s all the 3-point contest is: 27 shots. It’s a fun exhibition of the game’s best shooters, but it’s also just 27 shots.

So if you’re going to bet it, you need to focus in on a theory.

This year’s event includes two… sigh… “MTN DEW ZONES” — get that money, NBA — with two shots, each six feet beyond the arc to the left and right of the top of the key, that are worth three points. With the shooters in this contest, that could wind up mattering quite a bit.

Let’s take a look at a variety of factors — consistency, efficiency, distance and more — to find value in Saturday night’s contest.


Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


CONSISTENCY

Take a look at Buddy Hield’s chart for shots beyond 22 feet (from Positive Residual):

A nice solid distribution of shots and percentages all the way around. No big dips or dives. Hield’s a volume shooter. He made the seventh-most 3-pointers in NBA history last season. As in, ever.

Hield’s release is quick and effortless. He doesn’t shoot especially well relative to the other shooters at any given spot, but he also doesn’t shoot particularly poorly. He’s good from everywhere.

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