Tuesday NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Best Bets for Sixers vs. Pacers, Knicks vs. Lakers (May 11)
Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Knicks standout Derrick Rose.
- Eleven games. Two featured picks.
- Basketball analysts Kenny Ducey and Malik Smith deliver their best bets below, which includes a play from the nationally-televised game between the Knicks and Lakers.
We have a stacked NBA schedule on tap, with 11 games taking place Tuesday across the league.
There are two nationally televised contests, with things getting started via an intriguing showdown between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Game time is 7:30 p.m. ET for the opener that kicks off the TNT doubleheader.
The nightcap pits two of the league’s most decorated and storied franchises — the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers — against each other. That contest is slated to tip at 10 p.m. ET at Staples Center.
Kenny Ducey and Malik Smith each have a pick on the loaded card. Let’s take a look at their detailed analysis and top plays.
NBA Odds & Picks
76ers vs. Pacers
Kenny Ducey: The trends say one thing, but I think our eyes all say another. The over has hit in 10 of the 15 games the Indiana Pacers have played on the second night of a back-to-back set, but I’m not so certain both teams can get to this pretty-high number.
Sure, the Pacers are tops in pace over the last eight games, but the Sixers have the best defense over that span, allowing just 101.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s almost five points better than the next-best team.
The statuses of Malcolm Brogdon, JaKarr Sampson and Jeremy Lamb are up in the air after the trio missed Monday’s game. And on the second night of a back-to-back matchup, it’s not unfair to assume they’d miss out again. It’s worth noting the Pacers scored just 111 in that win over Cleveland as well.
I’m also concerned that Joel Embiid will miss the game, considering he is listed as questionable and the first-place Sixers have no reason to push it with their oft-injured superstar. Without Embiid, this Sixers offense, which is really all we have to fear when taking this total, will pack a significantly weaker punch. He’s added 11.9 points per 100 possessions on that end, according to NBA.com.
You might want to wait on getting final word on Embiid before pulling the trigger, but I have the utmost confidence that this defense, even with Matisse Thybulle, will absolutely suffocate some tired, defeated Pacers players. This number is simply too high.
Knicks vs. Lakers
Malik Smith: The last time the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers played each other in April, the Knicks were one game over .500 and just beginning to find their offensive rhythm.
The Lakers’ starting lineup in that game was Dennis Schroder, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris and Andre Drummond.
On Tuesday, the Lakers expect to have LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor and you could argue that both teams will look drastically different compared to a month ago.
One thing that won’t be different will be the Knicks’ intensity, specifically in the first half. All season long, the Knicks have been one of the NBA’s best teams in the first 24 minutes of games
For the season, New York is 45-22-1 against the spread in the first half, which is tops in the league. The Knicks are even better as road underdogs: 18-6-1 ATS in the first half, including 5-1 since that first Lakers meeting, according to Bet Labs.
On the other hand, the Lakers have been the third-worst team in the opening half as favorites and even worse at home (12-22-1 ATS).
Both teams are fighting to keep or improve their place in the standings, so I don’t think there’s a motivation edge for either side there. And while James returning certainly improves the Lakers, the Knicks have shown they fear no one and that includes the hobbled reigning champions.
That said, I think there’s value in playing what has been a profitable betting trend for New York. I like the Knicks to cover the first half as 2.5-point dogs.