NBA Odds & Picks for Warriors vs. Hornets: Betting Value on Another High Over/Under
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green.
Warriors vs. Hornets Odds
|Moneyline||-129 / +107|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
The Warriors are on the second game of a road back-to-back after playing the Magic last night. The Hornets have not played last Sunday due to postponements against the Bulls and the Nuggets.
How will this extra rest vs. no rest play out in this matchup? Let’s break it down.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have continued to list Draymond Green as questionable with a sore right ankle. Considering he played last night, be wary of whether or not he will suit up for this game due to his injury and the back-to-back. You can keep tabs on his status using our Fantasy Labs Insiders Tool.
Draymond is critical for the Warriors’ offense. While Steph Curry might be the ultimate ceiling raiser, Draymond is the anchor.
When Curry is on the floor without Green, the Warriors are -5.8 points per 100. When they both are on the floor, they’re +6.7 points per 100, scoring 117.2 points per 100 possessions while shooting 58.3% eFG%, per Cleaning the Glass.
While the Warriors lost last night, Green showed his importance as a point center. He had nine assists in 33 minutes, and his court vision truly opens up the floor for the Warriors’ offense.
If he plays in this back-to-back, look for the Warriors’ offense to roll.
The Hornets missed a few games this week due to contact tracing after their game on Sunday against the San Antonio Spurs. It’s actually given a few of their players a chance to rest up and maybe get fully healthy prior to this game.
Namely, Gordan Hayward who was listed as probable on Sunday and subsequently scratched is again listed as probable with low back discomfort — after a week off, the Hornets hope he can play.
Additionally, Devonte’ Graham is listed as questionable after he left their game on Sunday with a left patella femoral injury. PJ Washington has been cleared to play after going through the league’s health and safety protocols, but Caleb Martin and Cody Martin are currently listed as out due to those same protocols.
As of now, the Hornets have eight players available, and Hayward and Graham would give them 10.
Over the past month, the Hornets’ offense has been rolling, and they are scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions. The issue? They’re giving up 116.4 points per 100.
Both of these numbers are higher than their full-season average, and much of it is due to their increased usage of rookie phenom LaMelo Ball. He still turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the league (15.5% of his possessions), but he’s an absolute sparkplug and a walking highlight film.
Look for the Hornets to push the pace. When LaMelo is on the floor, Charlotte plays at a pace of 102.65 vs. 100.15 when he’s off.
If Graham is unable to go, the Hornets will be even thinner, which means more minutes for LaMelo and an uptick in their overall pace.
Despite the rest advantage, this matchup plays well for the Warriors. They are the more complete team facing a squad that hasn’t been able to play this past week due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
If Green is able to play in this back-to-back, the Warriors should continue their offensive output. This is a tough matchup to roll into for the Hornets, as they have not played a game in nearly a week, and the Warriors like to push the pace as they play at the second-fastest speed in the league.
The Hornets might experience a bit of rust with the time off, but I think their legs will be fresh and ready to run.
After the first 20 games of a season, we have a better picture of who teams are. This season after 20 games, when two teams with paces over 100 play each other, the over has hit 63.1% of the time.
I’m backing this trend if Green plays because of how instrumental he is to the Warriors’ offense. I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over 230.5