The Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1) and San Antonio Spurs (17-7) will square off in the NBA Cup Semifinals on Saturday night. Tipoff from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is set for 9:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -10.5), with the over/under set at 232 total points. Oklahoma City is a -500 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Antonio is +390 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Spurs vs Thunder picks and my NBA Cup predictions for Saturday, December 13.
Spurs vs Thunder Picks, Props, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9 p.m. | |
| 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs Thunder Odds for NBA Cup Semifinals
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 232 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 232 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Spurs vs Thunder NBA Cup Semifinals Preview
I loved the Lakers last round, so clearly I’m underestimating San Antonio, especially with Victor Wembanyama back. And I’m still gonna do it again. I’m just not willing to get in front of the Thunder train at this point.
Admission: from our NBA betting podcast Buckets, we have a 250-1 ticket on the Spurs to win the NBA Cup. So I’m pretty good here if the Spurs pull it off.
So, of course the Spurs will probably cover and the Thunder will win, and then I’ll lose both. But still!
The Thunder have just been such a monster.
Adding Wembanyama back helps San Antonio, obviously, and makes them a better team. But the Spurs were in a fast-paced groove without him, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS.
Adding a high-usage player back into the mix fundamentally changes things and causes disruptions.
Much of the Spurs success has also been from De’Aaron Fox, and moving Fox to a lower usage role with Wemby back disrupts that as well.
The extra possessions are the big problem here for the Spurs. They’re not bad at turnovers, 14th league-wide. But if you’re not elite at keeping the ball out of the opponent’s hands, that creates mayhem against OKC, who leads the league in forcing them and is elite at getting out and scoring off them.
I’ll go ahead and back the juggernaut to keep it rolling here, laying the points with the best team in the world by a wide margin, even at -10.5
Pick: Thunder -10.5
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Spurs vs. Thunder
Once again, I’m backing the over despite every trend saying it’s a dumb idea.
But, OKC and San Antonio are both bottom-three in opponent transition rate. They let you run.
Now, they’re both top-10 in transition defense. So, they get stops on that volume of opportunities, but if you get a transition stop, especially a turnover, you can then push the ball up for advantage chances at the other end.
I think this will be a sloppy, fast-paced game.
Even with two teams that are good defensively, and with Wemby back, the Spurs are playing too fast, and the Thunder offense has been too good to doubt.
Pick: Over 232
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