Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Picks: Will Devin Booker Drop Dimes?
Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns: 9:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Suns SG Devin Booker
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Devin Booker is absolutely on fire right now. He’s scored at least 32 points in six straight games, helping the Suns bounce back from an eight-game losing streak to win three of their last five. He’s also been just as hot as a passer, averaging 7.4 assists in those five games.
Deandre Ayton is back now, so that’s one significant option for Booker to find for good looks. He’s averaging 6.5 dimes on the season, right at this number, but his median and most common outcome this season is seven assists. That makes this a positive gamble at +EV, and Booker is worth playing up to -125.
Raptors F OG Anunoby
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
OG Anunoby is one of our model’s top recommended DFS plays today, and the over on this prop goes hand in hand. Anunoby is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game. That averages out to 7.1 boards per 36 minutes, and that number could be relevant tonight in a game in which Toronto is extremely short-handed with Anunoby potentially soaking up minutes from Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Norm Powell.
Add in a plus matchup against a Blazers team that hasn’t matched up well against forwards all season, and our models project Anunoby at 7.3 rebounds. That gives this prop the highest margin of error on the board right now at 27% and means it’s worth riding as high as -160.
Nets PG Spencer Dinwiddie
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-134) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Few players have been as hot as Spencer Dinwiddie over the past two months. Dinwiddie continues to thrive with Kyrie Irving sidelined, making a real push for an Eastern Conference All-Star spot. He’s averaging 25.2 points and 6.9 assists per game with Kyrie out, and it’s that latter number that interests us here.
Dinwiddie gets a bit of a negative pace differential in a tough matchup against Chris Paul and the Nets, but our models project him at 7.0 assists anyway, right in line with his usual Kyrie-less production. There’s a good chance this line moves up to 6.0 by tip, so grab the over-5.5 all the way to -165 while it’s still available.