Tuesday’s NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Buy CJ McCollum’s Hot Shooting to Continue (April 6)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: CJ McCollum #3 of the Portland Trail Blazers.
- The NBA is a guard-driven league and on Tuesday night, the top player props are guard-driven too.
- Brandon Anderson breaks down the three player props he's betting, including why he thinks CJ McCollum will have a hot shooting night in Los Angeles.
- Read below for his picks in tonight's matchups.
We have certainly hit the dregs of the NBA season, with the playoffs still about 40 days away and the number of questionable and injured players piling up from one day to the next.
At this point of the season, it’s important to just find a system that works and stick with it, even if that means going back to the well for plays that have been working. That’s what we’re doing today with two of our picks.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Gary Trent Jr., Over 17.5 Points (-115)
|Lakers vs. Raptors||Lakers -1|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Toronto Raptors fans have a new fan favorite, and his name is Gary Trent Jr. Trent came over in the Norman Powell deal at the Trade Deadline, and it’s pretty clear he’s already found a nice home with the Raptors.
He’s scoring 16.7 points per game over six appearances in a Raptors uniform, starting all six of them and playing more than 32 minutes a game. And he’s been firing away, too, taking double-digit shots in every game and firing up more than seven 3-point attempts per game.
That volume won’t be going anywhere tonight with both Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet missing from the lineup. That was the case last night too, and Trent got to play the hero, when his 3-pointer at the buzzer gave the Raptors the win over the Wizards. He looked pretty great the previous two games too, putting up 24 and 31 points and hitting six threes in each.
Look for Trent to keep firing away, in part because Toronto doesn’t have many other options. Trent has a good chance to lead the team in shots, and the Lakers defense hasn’t been anywhere near as good without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, so there is scoring to be had.
There’s not much precedent to go off of here, but the present is now for Gary Trent Jr. We project him at 20.8 points, so I’ll play this over to -130.
Victor Oladipo, Under 20.5 PTS + REB (-125)
|Grizzlies vs. Heat||Heat -5.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Victor Oladipo is another player who was moved at the trade deadline, but he has not made quite the same hero’s welcome at his new home in Miami.
Oladipo has played two games for the Heat, and they haven’t been pretty. Oladipo has played 53 minutes for Miami and scored 14 points combined, shooting an ugly 5-of-21 from the floor.
He’s been in constant foul trouble, with five fouls in each game, and he’s recorded seven turnovers as well. The rebounds also haven’t been there for Oladipo, with just four so far in two games.
The only positive at this point has been Dipo’s passing. He has five assists in each game, and Miami sorely needs more secondary creation, so that would be a nice addition if it does hold up.
Our Props Tool keeps fading Oladipo during his poor start, so the only question is which props to fade. I’m staying away from the assists for now. Perhaps those five dimes a game are fluky, but they’re the only thing working for Oladipo right now.
But I’m happy to fade his overall production outside of the assists. He’s averaging just 9.0 points and rebounds in the two games, which is not even half of this 20.5 line. And no, Oladipo won’t shoot 9% on 3s forever (not a typo) so the shooting should bounce back some, but this is an unfamiliar and smaller role, and the transition continues to look rocky.
I’ll continue to fade Oladipo until he looks like himself in Miami. We project Oladipo at 14.0 points and 3.9 rebounds, and honestly, that might still be kind the way he’s playing. I’ll take the under to -140.
CJ McCollum, Over 3.5 3-Pointers (+146)
|Trail Blazers vs. Clippers||Clippers -6|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This is the least likely to hit of our three props today, but it’s my favorite play anyway because of the potential payout. This is another prop we just played successfully a few days ago, but since the books haven’t adjusted yet, we’ll go back to the well again.
The Trail Blazers are exactly who we think they are. With Jusuf Nurkic out again, the Blazers have to play fast and outscore opponents; they’ll need plenty of points to contend in a tough road game with the Clippers tonight.
McCollum had a torrid start to his season before missing two months to injury. He scored 27.6 PPG over his first 12 games, making an absurd 4.9 3s per game on 11.3 attempts.
It was a slow ramp-up for CJ when he returned, with under 28 minutes in his first four games back, but he’s hit his stride now, and the production has returned too. With his minutes back up to 35.5 over the last seven games, he’s back to 22.6 PPG and still taking a huge volume of 3s, with 9.7 attempts per game and 3.4 makes.
The volume is the key here. A healthy McCollum is getting up double-digit 3-point attempts most nights. He’s averaging 10.7 attempts in his 19 full-strength games and making 4.4 per game. McCollum has gone over 3.5 3-pointers in 14 of those 19 full-health games, hitting this over 74% of the time. That includes four of these last seven games, now that he’s healthy again.
This line may be right, but I certainly don’t think we should be getting plus juice on it, not with the volume McCollum has had this season. Even with his blistering shooting percentages cooled down some, 10-plus attempts per game will always give us a good shot at an over here.
Our Props Tool gives this one a 14% edge in our favor. I’ll play at just about any positive number.