NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: LaMelo Ball, Clint Capela Provide Value on Monday (Jan. 11)

NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: LaMelo Ball, Clint Capela Provide Value on Monday (Jan. 11) article feature image
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Jared C. Tilton/ Getty Images. Pictured: Charlotte Hornets rookie LaMelo Ball.

It feels like the NBA is holding itself together with duct tape right now with all the players testing positive for Coronavirus or sidelined for COVID protocol. Teams like the 76ers and Celtics are extremely shorthanded and playing guys you’ve never even heard of before. But the show must go on, and where there’s wonky lineups and expectations, there’s often opportunity, both for the players and for us in the betting world.

Tonight, we’ll focus on two of the breakout stars of the season thus far, opposite one another in a game you might not have paid much attention to otherwise. The New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets are both 5-5, surprising thus far, and Julius Randle has been a stud for the Knicks while rookie LaMelo Ball is breaking out for Charlotte. So how do we play them?

For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the ActionLabs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

LaMelo Ball, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110)

Knicks at Hornets Hornets -4.5
Bet Now
Time 7:10 p.m. ET

I’ve been dying to play some LaMelo Ball props, and I’m finally confident enough to recommend him here.

Ball has yet to make his first NBA start but is filling up the box score anyway. Ball is averaging 12.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.9 assists a game and has made an immediate winning impact on the Hornets, and he’s starting to get more and more  playing time, too.

Ball played 20-or-fewer minutes his first three games and struggled to get going. But in the seven games since, LaMelo is up to 28.2 MPG and his numbers are up too, at 15.6 points, 7.4 boards, and 7.1 dimes. He’s had double-digit boards in his last two outings, and he’s always been an elite rebounder, which is one of the reasons I tabbed him as a serious Rookie of the Year favorite in our piece about the ROY Race last week.

Ball has gone over this rebounding number in four straight games, averaging 9.3 RPG during that stretch. Ball is coming off his first career triple-double over the weekend, and I like him to keep the good times rolling against the Knicks. I’ll play to -140.

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

Julius Randle, Over 10.5 Rebounds (-130)

Knicks at Hornets Hornets -4.5
Bet Now
Time 7:10 p.m. ET

Ball isn’t the only player in this game who has been balling. Julius Randle has played at an All-Star level this season and might be one of the front runners for Most Improved Player thus far. The Knicks don’t have a ton of talent around Randle, and New York is running everything through him on offense.

Randle is averaging career highs across the board through 10 games at 23.2 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists. That assist number is the truly eye-popping statistic, but we’ll focus on the rebounds today, because you better believe there will be plenty of rebounds in a game featuring the Knicks and Hornets.

Randle has hit double-digit rebounds in eight straight games, which means you’re already right there on the verge of this over. He’s gone over 10.5 rebounds six times (60%) this year, plus a couple 10s and a nine in there, meaning he was only far short in one game, against 76ers.

Randle is up to 13.2 RPG over his last five games, and that’s about where our projections see him today. The juice is rising on this one so grab it quickly, or up to -155. I’m also seeing this prop one rebound higher at plus odds for over 11.5. I prefer the 10.5 over to play it safe but would consider over-11.5 if it remains plus odds and I can’t find the 10.5.

[Bet now at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]

Clint Capela, Under 1.5 Assists (-130)

76ers at Hawks Hawks -6.5
Bet Now
Time 7:40 p.m. ET

Close your eyes and picture Clint Capela. What do you see?

You probably see a tall dude rolling to the rim and catching lobs from James Harden or Trae Young. You might see a rebound or a huge block at the rim, maybe an occasional vicious dunk. You know what you didn’t picture? A pass. Think about it. Try to imagine Clint Capela passing the ball. It’s just not a skill set we think of with Capela, and with 333 assists in 341 career games, it’s pretty easy to see why.

So why is this line at 1.5 assists? Good question.

Capela has nine assists in his seven games with the Hawks, technically the highest assist rate of his career. But dig a little deeper. On New Year’s Day, Capela randomly put up six assists against the Nets. Six!!

That was a career-high for Capela, who’s only tallied four dimes in a game 10 times his entire career. He’s had more than one just 94 times ever, going over this prop line just 27.6% of the time.

By the way, remember those nine assists with the Hawks? That drops to three dimes in six games once you remove the outlier: three games with one and three with zero.

Let’s hope to avoid that random outlier and play the under 1.5 while it’s offered. I’ll play this one to -160.

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

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