The Los Angeles Clippers (3-3) and Denver Nuggets (3-3) will face off in a winner-take-all Game 7 to close their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Nuggets are 1.5-point favorites over the Clippers on the spread (Nuggets -1.5), with the over/under set at 206.5 total points. Denver is a -125 favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +105 to pull off the upset.
The Nuggets and Clippers go toe-to-toe one last time for the right to get smashed by the Thunder in the next round. But in a matchup that has been so tight, with the competition level only continuing to rise, how do you find value in tonight's Game 7?
Let's get into my Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks on Saturday, May 3.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 7
My Nuggets vs. Clippers Game 7 best bets are on Denver to cover the spread and the Over at 206.5 total points, with the best lines currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best lines using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Nuggets -1.5 (-110), Over 206.5 (-120)
Clippers vs. Nuggets Odds for Saturday, May 3
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 206.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 206.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Clippers vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -1.5
- Clippers vs. Nuggets over/under: 206.5 total points
- Clippers vs. Nuggets moneyline: Clippers +105, Nuggets -125
- Clippers vs. Nuggets best bets:Nuggets -1.5, Over 206.5
Clippers vs. Nuggets Game 7 Preview
Denver Nuggets
On top of homecourt and the altitude advantage, the Clippers had to show a few different hands in order to force a Game 7. Denver has now had two days to figure out solutions for the matchup changes that Ty Lue threw at them in LA.
Lue shelved Kris Dunn and went to Nicolas Batum to start the second half, and it worked perfectly, as Batum guarded Jamal Murray. That meant if the Nuggets ran pick-and-roll, the Clippers could switch the action and trust Batum as a small-ball center on Jokic.
The Clippers also moved Kawhi Leonard off Michael Porter Jr. and onto Aaron Gordon, allowing Leonard to switch Murray-Gordon pick-and-rolls, and getting him in better help positions.
There are counters, though. The Nuggets can involve MPJ more in screening actions to put pressure on Norman Powell, who took on his assignment. They can have Murray attack downhill more on Zubac switches and set higher screens to allow Murray to penetrate further into the defense.
One thing that’s been tough is Nikola Jokic’s offensive game vs. Ivica Zubac. It’s not just Zubac. The Clippers have layered a set of matchup zone coverage that has stymied and flummoxed Jokic.
Jokic will have to be aggressive from the onset and hit first (and quicker) to prevent the Clippers from bogging down the Nuggets offense.
Role players typically make more shots at home, a big reason for the home team Game 7 advantage. Can Russell Westbrook convert enough open corner threes? Will Christian Braun take advantage of the Clippers hiding James Harden on him?
Los Angeles Clippers
Harden’s playoff history is obviously checkered, but this matchup has been good to him. He’s been able to get downhill consistently and attack Jokic’s lack of rim protection in either drop coverage in pick-and-roll or as a help defender when he isolates against Michael Porter Jr.
This is why MPJ may not be playable in Game 7, especially considering he's banged up with a shoulder injury.
If Westbrook has to play more for defense, that causes less spacing for Denver and more volatility offensively, which can be killer in a Game 7.
Zubac has won his Jokic matchup, unbelievably. Kawhi Leonard has won his Aaron Gordon matchup, closely. Jamal Murray has been better than Norman Powell, but the Clippers have gotten more production from their 4-8 rotation than Denver has.
Ultimately, the best adjustment is a simple one: Kawhi Leonard takes over and makes shots. When Leonard is dialed in, no contest matters. He can win Game 7 on his own.
History of Game 7s
The two sweetest words in all of sports: Parlay Cashed. Wait, no, that’s not right. It’s Game 7!
- Since 2003, home teams are 45-24 (65.2%) SU in Game 7. However, they’re just 35-34 ATS.
- Round 1 home teams are usually the strongest in Game 7, going 24-7 SU and 18-13 ATS.
- Teams at home who failed to cover Game 6 are 14-2 SU and 9-7 ATS in Game 7.
- The home dominance has started to fade since the Bubble. Home teams since 2021 are just 4-8 SU and ATS the last the four postseasons.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Betting Predictions for Game 7
Nuggets -1.5
The Clippers have been the better team but have squandered too many chances.
Giving Denver the reverb opportunity to adjust to the big rotation changes and respond from the disappointing Game 6 game sets up what could be a classic game.
The Clippers could easily win, but I lean Denver here in a close one.
Over 206.5
I also like the Over. Game 7s are usually great Under spots, but not in Round 1, and both offenses have too much firepower in this matchup.
Kris Dunn Under 5.5 Points / Nic Batum Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
Kris Dunn is pretty simple. It’s hard to put him back out there after Batum helped you force the Game 7.
Batum has gotten great looks in this series, and I think he plays more minutes in Game 7.
Lue could swerve and go right back to Dunn tonight, but I think he plays Batum more, and I expect Batum to knock down at least two three-pointers while Dunn takes a seat.
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists
Jamal Murray has gone over this assists line in five of six games in this series.
He’s able to create a lot more vs. the way the Clippers have schemed him and has been on point with his playmaking.
I like hm to once again get others involved on catch-and-shoot opportunities when the Clippers send help in the two-man game.
Clippers vs. Nuggets Game 7 Best Bets
- Nuggets -1.5 (-110)
- Over 206.5 (-120)
- Kris Dunn Under 5.5 Points (-115)
- Nic Batum Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-150)
- Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists (-145)
Nuggets vs. Clippers Betting Trends
