NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Rebounding Overs For Tuesday (May 11)
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: RJ Barrett
- Tristan Thompson. Khris Middleton. RJ Barrett.
- We have a trio of NBA rebounding props on deck for Tuesday night.
- Brandon Anderson breaks each of them down below, complete with the sportsbooks offering the best odds.
Some betting days are tough, and it’s easy to get down in the dumps when you come one assist away from hitting a big parlay, but bettors need to have a short memory and look ahead to the next payday instead of looking back.
In other words, betting is often about rebounding, and Tuesday’s NBA prop picks are all about rebounding. Even better, they’re all at plus juice. It’s a rare Plus Juice Bounce Back Rebounding Day here at The Action Network!
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tristan Thompson Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110)
|Celtics vs. Heat||Celtics +1.5|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The poor Boston Celtics must have forgotten to renew the luck on their three-leaf clover. Boston has been besieged by injuries all season, and now that Jaylen Brown is out for the season, it feels like it’s time to just get to the offseason and try again next year.
Alas, there are still a few games left to be played, and the Celtics are still jostling for playoff positioning — and this game against the Heat is huge. Boston has to win to have any chance of avoiding the play-in tournament. And since it looks like Robert Williams will be out, too, that pretty much leaves Tristan Thompson as the last big man standing wearing green. He should get heavy minutes, as many as he can handle matching up with Bam Adebayo.
These teams just played over the weekend, and Thompson recorded 12 rebounds off the bench. He’ll start this one with Timelord out, and Thompson has always been a tough rebounder and should have big opportunity and need with another tough rebounder in Brown missing.
Sure enough, Thompson’s rebounding numbers are up lately. He’s averaging 10.8 rebounds per game over his last five outings, and he’s gone over 9.5 boards in four of the five, despite coming off the bench for two of them. Add in the extra minutes, and we have a good shot at double digits again here.
We project Thompson at 10.8 boards, so I like this at any plus number or down to -110.
Khris Middleton Over 5.5 Rebounds (+120)
|Bucks vs. Magic||Bucks -13|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
Some players are just tough to set a line for. Khris Middleton averages 6.0 rebounds per game this season, and he’s been right at or just above 6.0 RPG three seasons straight now. Players who average something close to a whole number make for tough lines — do you set it at 5.5 and force the over better to drink the juice, or do you push it to 6.5 and juice the under?
Somehow we’re being afforded an Option C here, with an opportunity to bet the over and get odds in our favor.
The Bucks were embarrassed by the Spurs on Monday night, and I expect them to come out focused and prepared on Tuesday night. Middleton has done his thing, with steady if not unspectacular numbers and terrific shooting across the board, just like usual. But his rebounding numbers are up lately, which plays in our favor.
He’s gone over 5.5 rebounds in four of his last five games. He’s also over in 10 of his last 16, hitting our over 62.5% of the time. His rebounding average is still right at 6.1 RPG during that stretch, but that’s because of three outlier low games with one, two, and two rebounds. Outside of those three, he’s up to 7.2 RPG across the other 13 recent games.
With Middleton’s rebounds and minutes up, this over is in our favor, especially with such strong odds in our direction. We just need to hope the Bucks don’t come out too focused and blow the Magic out, limiting minutes, but otherwise I like our chances.
I’d play this at any plus number.
RJ Barrett Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100)
|Knicks at Lakers||Knicks +5.5|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
Folks, I don’t wish to alarm you, but Tom Thibodeau is overplaying one of his most reliable players again.
RJ Barrett is among the league leaders in minutes played this season. He’s averaging 34.9 minutes per game on the season and rarely gets a night off, and his minutes are up even further as the season hits the home stretch.
Over the last nine games, Barrett is up to a whopping 39.3 minutes per game, and with a few Knicks out injured and a key game against the Lakers, it’s not like Thibs is going to magically start pulling back the reins now. Barrett is averaging 19.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game during this recent stretch, and he’s gone over 5.5 rebounds in seven of the nine games, hitting the over 78% of the time.
For the season, Barrett is at 5.8 RPG, which is still in our favor, even without the extra minutes boost. He had gone over 5.5 rebounds in 28-of-51 games even before this recent stretch, still hitting the over 55% of the time and now 58% of the games on the full season.
It might be time for the books to bump this line to 6.5. That’s about where we project Barrett, and I’ll grab the over at even odds or play to -120 if needed.